London's economy set to stay strong by decade's end

London’s Economy: From Brexit to Black – Surviving the Chaos

London has been on the front lines of some of the biggest global events of the last decade—Brexit headaches, a pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and a cost‑of‑living rollercoaster. Yet, surprisingly, the city’s economy has stayed quite sturdy, with new research saying it’s set to keep that strong footing all the way to 2030.

What the Numbers Really Mean

According to a recent study from King’s College London’s Policy Institute (backed by the EC Business Improvement District), the city’s resilience isn’t a fluke. It’s more like a well‑honed habit:

Five‑Year Snag: The economy has banged into a slightly weaker place than first imagined five years ago.
Future Forecast: Still on track for a solid performance through 2030, but not a rock‑solid monster as early hopes suggested.

Why Devolution Is the Way Forward

To keep growing and to wipe out any potential slide in London’s importance, the report calls for a deeper spread of political power—essentially, giving the city more of a say in its future. But it’s not just about more money; it’s about crafting a new status for London that’s more than a brick‑in‑the‑wall for the UK economy.

Council of Mayors: The New Power Play

The paper proposes a bold move: a “council of mayors” that brings together London with other leading English cities. Think of it like a superhero team of city leaders, each swooping in to bring local truths and strategies to the national stage.

Statutory Mission: A legal mandate to shape spin‑up proposals for the central government.
Leadership: The prime minister as chairperson—because you need a big boss to see the whole picture.
Composition: Every elected mayor in England, offering 360° options for fairness and rollout.
Goal: Decide the right balance of devolution and boost political support for London across the UK.

The Bottom Line

London’s bouncing-back streak is impressive, but it’s a bit like walking a tightrope: you’ve got to keep your balance. The council of mayors idea offers a fresh rope—maybe a bit tighter, but it helps keep that line spinning in the right direction. The wiser, more devolved approach could safeguard London’s future and keep the city humming louder than ever.

London’s economy in 2030: strong but could be stronger

London’s Economic Forecast: A Bit of a Slow‑Down But Plenty of Room for Growth

TL;DR: The city has held its ground, but the end‑of‑decade outlook is a touch less bright than last year’s dreams. The smart move? Give local leaders more say in what happens around them.

What the Reports Say

Resilience Lesson: London’s economy has survived a lot of wiggle‑rooms.
Worse Case: The future looks a tad dimmer than the 2018 “super‑optimistic” forecast.
Local Power: Giving city councils more control could boost growth like a secret sauce.
Tax Strategy: Keeping more of the money collected locally can seal stronger incentives for businesses.

Why It Matters (And Why It’s Kind of Clever)

Think of it like this: if the local boss knows the exact taste of neighborhood bread, they can decide whether to invest on a bakery or a tech incubator. The idea is that local decision‑making drives progress and tunes destiny with the “spicy” incentives that are already boiling in the city’s economy.

Bottom Line

London’s vibe is still strong, but the smartest playbook will let local leaders own the win‑whistle. That could be the key to keeping the city bright and bustling into the next decade.

London’s 2030 Economic Forecast – Quick & Quirky Summary

Cambridge Econometrics did the math 5 years ago and came up with four possible future scenarios for London. Their newest report says the capital’s future still leans toward the “best‑shot” option, although the predictions have taken a little hit since 2018.

What’s the Latest Forecast?

UK Output Share – 26% (down from 27%)
UK Employment Share – 18.5% (slightly lower than 19%)
London Productivity Index (vs. UK 100) – 145 (originally 150)

So, yes, London’s share of the pie is a touch smaller, but it’s still tasting pretty good.

London Still Looks Strong in Other Measures

Knowledge‑Intensive Jobs Share: 35% – exactly as expected.
Regional GDP (GVA) Comparisons:
- London: 113 (2015 Base 100)
- Rest of UK: 107
Foreign Direct Investment Growth (KOF Index): ~25% Increase – London is still a magnet.
Post‑COVID Employment Growth:
- London: +6%
- Rest of UK: +2%
Real GVA per Job:
- London: £78,000
- Rest of UK: £51,000

In short, London keeps pulling ahead, especially when you look at job quality and international investment.

Why London Still Stands Tall

London’s resilience comes from being a global services hub—especially finance. That sector has held its own even amid Brexit knock‑on effects.

But Scratches on the Crown

Global economies are tightening up; not every nation wants to share its wealth.
The UK government’s focus has shifted a bit away from London’s lead role.

Despite the challenges, London remains the UK’s sparkling global city, drawing business, talent, and money like a magnet—though it may need to keep fighting for its crown as the world changes.

A council of mayors could drive further devolution and boost the London economy

Why a Council of Mayors Might Just Save the Nation

Imagine every mayor in England sitting in a big ring, all under the cap of the Prime Minister. This is the brainchild of a report that wants to give local leaders a stronger seat at the table.

The Idea

The council would convene a few times a year, each meeting throwing an agenda back to the government.
Government representatives, not ministers, would need to reply within a set deadline.
It’s essentially a national forum for talking about how a healthy London pocketbook boosts the entire country.

What’s Already Happening?

Think of the Levelling Up Advisory Council— it works the same way but isn’t officially mandated. The report suggests that to truly hand over cash power to local regions, we need a legal, formal version of that body.

The Bottom Line

If London could keep more of the money it makes, it would have a bigger knack to push forward pro‑growth policies. The council would make sure that happens.

What policymakers should do

London’s Future: A Chatty Policy Review

Key Proposals at a Glance

Keep the graduate visa – plus the global talent and high‑potential visas – so London can keep attracting the next wave of entrepreneurs and innovators.
Let local councils charge higher fees for any planning application that tops a set minimum size. The extra cash will feed back into a re‑imagined planning system.
Drive the idea of a “five‑day city” with smarter TfL fare policies, pulling more workers back into the heart of the capital.
Build housing in inner London to relieve shortages, sustain the bustling high‑street economy, and re‑think the green belt for well‑planned new settlements.
Craft a fresh industrial strategy led by the mayor, together with boroughs and the UK government.
Prioritise green infrastructure – public transit, renewable energy, green buildings – through public‑private partnerships, tax cuts, and smart regulations.

Voices from the Vanguard

Dr. Jack Brown, a lecturer in London Studies at King’s College, told us, “London is facing serious challenges, but we’ve always been good at tackling tough stuff. The setbacks may reshape 2030 projections, but the city remains a powerhouse for the UK economy. We can’t afford to take that for granted.”

He argues for a bold devolution strategy that strengthens the capital’s power over finances and decision‑making, especially in housing, transport, migration, and planning.

Tony Halmos, a visiting professor at the Policy Institute, added, “The research outlines the policies London needs to thrive past 2030, but the cornerstone is a council of mayors across England that can collaborate with the government on a bold, wide‑spread devolution plan.”

Nick Carty, chair of the EC BID, summed it up with a grin: “I’m thrilled we can now back this report. London’s economic muscle isn’t weak – it’s just waiting to be unleashed. Let’s treat the city not as a competition against the rest of the country, but as a national gem that can drive UK prosperity. That means aligning powers – policy and tax – with the mayor and other English cities. The plan is a winning route to London’s future success.”

What This Means for We‑Are‑London

All in all, the report is a roadmap: keep the talent pipeline flowing, empower local councils, slap on some sensible fee hikes, bring back the commuter grind, deliver homes where they’re needed most, and make sure the city’s economy is built on sustainably‑powered infrastructure. The result? A London that stands tall, keeps moving, and lets the rest of the UK bask in its glow.