Where the Global Deal Engine Is Cruising in 2024
WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor (QDPM) teamed up with the M&A Research Centre at Bayes Business School to dish out the latest numbers. Turns out the market’s not just holding steady – it’s sprinting ahead.
Numbers That Pack a Punch
- 166 mega‑deals over $100 million closed in Q2 2024 – the same count as Q1, but a solid 28% jump from the 130 deals in the same period last year.
- 35 deals over $1 billion – the third straight quarter with a rise, following 34 in Q1 and 32 in Q4.
- 4 “mega” deals over $10 billion in Q2 – bringing the year‑to‑date total to nine, versus just three in the first half of 2023.
Inside‑Industry Swaps Are the New Trend
Deal makers are increasingly staying within their own trenches: intra‑sector transactions climbed from 57% of the total in Q1 2023 to a lofty 74% in this latest quarter. Sellers are trimming non‑core assets, while buyers seek partners that share their playing field.
Expert Take: The Market’s Reloading
Jana Mercereau, Head of Europe M&A Consulting at WTW, says:
“Business is finally shaking off the post‑pandemic slump, heading back to pre‑Covid tempo. With interest‑rate cuts on the horizon, better financing, low volatility, and narrowing valuation gaps, it’s only a matter of time before the deal backlog gets uncorked.”
What the Numbers Really Say
While equity markets have been on fire, M&A players have struggled to keep up. From April to June 2024, dealors were down about 9.3 percentage points versus the broader market – a drop from 13.1pp in the previous quarter. Still, on a 15‑year horizon, trackers show acquirers have outperformed the market by about 1.4pp, proving the long‑term payoff pays off.
Regional Breakdown
- North America – buyers underperformed the regional index by 7.7%, making it the sixth straight quarter of lagging performance. 90 deals closed, down from 97 in Q1.
- Europe – again missing the mark, down 10.7% versus its index with 34 deals – a dip from 37 in Q1. Last year’s win in 2021 has turned into a slump.
- Asia Pacific – the champion this quarter, beating its index by +1pp and closing 38 deals – up seven from Q1. The region’s consistency has been a bright spot.
- China – the load‑bearing economy is in a slump: only 3 deals in Q2, the lowest activity for a first six‑month period since 2010.
Mercereau’s Final Word
“The uptick in deal numbers is a good start, but stubborn inflation, high rates, and the nagging U.S. election uncertainty still threaten to shake confidence. To ride the rebound, dealmakers must squeeze out risk: stick to high‑fit deals, run thorough due diligence, and plan integration that truly boosts value.”
So, if you’re thinking of jumping on the M&A bandwagon, it’s a good time, but remember – smart, careful moves win the day.
