Macro Trading Insights on Risk

Juneteenth Quiet, but the Market’s Still Warming Up

It’s a calm day before the U.S. trading desk crew clock out and the market shutters itself for Juneteenth. Volume looks thin, and that shortage will probably linger even after the holiday.

Equity Snapshot – What’s Really Going on?

Here’s a quick rundown that might spark your curiosity:

S&P 500 has hit 30 all-time highs this year – the most since 2021.
On a proportional basis, record closes have occurred in 26 % of trading days in 2024. If the trend holds, that could make 2024 the third best year ever, trailing only 1995 and 2021.
This Monday, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed in the green, while NVIDIA – often dubbed “the most important stock in the world” – slipped in red.

That scenario is a rarity. In 2024, we’ve seen the S&P and Nasdaq end higher just 16 and 11 times, respectively when NVDA was down. It’s a good sign that the market’s breadth isn’t getting too skinny.

Holiday Mode, Summer Chillers, and the Fed’s Knockout

The front‑month S&P contract is trading a razor‑thin 16‑point range, the tightest since early February. It’s not just the weekend; summer vibes (think EURO 2024 football excitement) and the Fed’s pause until September are adding to the calm.

Key takeaways:

Summer usually strolls upward for the S&P – July is the second‑best month on average.
Nasdaq 100 has even happier July track records, rallying 16 consecutive years.
The Fed’s “put” remains flexible, so the path of least resistance keeps pointing up.

Is the Market Overbought?

Many are cussing “overbought.” The Nasdaq’s 14‑day RSI spikes just above 80, quad‑ne the usual 70 warning bell. Yet history shows the index often climbs even after that spike (7 out of 10 one‑month returns after RSI crossed 70).

Waiting for the Next Big Event

We’ll keep an eye on:

May PCE print – Friday’s number is a key risk.
June jobs report – July 5th.
June CPI print – July 11th (a nice birthday gift for the market).

Until those come, volatility will likely stay low, and the market’s modest climb continues, driven more by seasonality than by a single looming catalyst.