Labour’s Tax Gamble: What the Numbers Say
How the Public Fancies Future Tax Hikes
Most voters feel that a Labour‑led government will be likely to bump up three major taxes:
- Capital Gains Tax – 60%
- Inheritance Tax – 56%
- Income Tax – 53%
Insights from Savanta’s Latest Survey
The study highlights that the idea of a tax rise is already “priced in” for many. Respondents think Labour will be more inclined than the Conservatives to raise:\
- Capital Gains Tax – 60% Labour vs. 44% Conservative
- Inheritance Tax – 56% Labour vs. 42% Conservative
- Income Tax – 53% Labour vs. 48% Conservative
- National Insurance – 50% Labour vs. 44% Conservative
- Stamp Duty – 50% Labour vs. 44% Conservative
Only VAT flipped the script, with both parties seen as equally probable to raise it (48% Labour, 46% Conservative).
Labour Supporters’ Perception of the Numbers
Among those who back Labour, the likely hikes look like:
- Capital Gains Tax – 56%
- Inheritance Tax – 51%
- National Insurance – 42%
- Income Tax – 42%
Conservative Echoes of Tax Increases
Even Conservatives are not shy of imagining higher taxes, especially for VAT, Income and National Insurance:
- VAT – 62%
- Income Tax – 60%
- National Insurance – 55%
Undecided Voters – Where the Skew Lies
Those still weighing their options lean more toward a Labour uptick than a Conservative one, particularly for:
- Capital Gains Tax – 57% Labour, 26% Conservative
- Inheritance Tax – 56% Labour, 28% Conservative
From the Desk of Chris Hopkins, Savanta
<p “Our research suggests it’s becoming a part of the electorate’s mental ledger that a future Labour government may very well raise taxes, even those they've publicly ruled out—like National Insurance. The perception might stem from Conservatives’ attack lines or simply a belief that a Starmer administration will target the wealthy and businesses,” says Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director.
