Market Mood: Calm & Expectant
Yesterday was a quiet cruise towards Christmas, with traders holding their breath for Friday’s US jobs report. Spotlights were on the few headline movers like OPEC+ shelving a 180k bpd output hike for Q1 and a surprisingly strong JOLTS number.
Key Figures
- OPEC+ delay: Keeps the bottle ticking but not enough to rally crude beyond a finger‑trickle, given the bleak demand outlook and a possible 3 mln bpd US supply uptick.
- JOLTS 7.74 mln: Higher than predictions, with quits rising to 2.1%—the best since May, hinting the workforce feels a little less gloomy.
Job‑Market Outlook
Take note: the data trend points to a slow normalisation in employment. December’s rate cut still looks locked in unless the NFP surprises massively (over 300k). Market pricing favours a dovish stance, only a 70% chance for a surge.
Currency & Commodities
G10 FX was a bit jittery but stayed in recent ranges. The USD’s early weakness faded; if you’re chasing a side‑ways ride, the dollar remains the favourite. Treasuries were a tad choppy front‑end, mirroring a tentative gold swim that stayed squeezed between its 100‑day and 50‑day moving averages.
Stocks & Bullish Outlook
The S&P and Nasdaq closed green, chasing the 55th record high of the year. I’m still a firm believer in the year‑end bull run and would hop on a dip if anything pops up.
What’s Next – Hot on the Desk
This week is packed: services PMIs, three central‑bank leaders speaking (Powell, Lagarde, Bailey) and a host of other data.
- US ISM Services: The headline is expected to dip to 55.6 from 56.0, but employment remains a solid sign of expansion.
- Policy Insight: Fed and ECB are likely headed for 25bp cuts later this month; the BoE probably stays static until February.
- Not to Stress About: The monthly ADP report (won’t match the NFP) and the Beige Book (usually snooze‑worthy).
