What’s The Buzz?
Last week was a win‑win for the markets: stocks kept their streak alive with a six‑week straight up run, the best performance of 2024 so far, while gold strutted across the finish line and broke a new record. The dollar stayed in the saddle, holding strong. All that drama? Now it’s a lull.
Stocks Remain in the Winner’s Circle
The S&P 500 ended the week up for the sixth consecutive #Week, marking a record season‑long rally. With the index already up more than 20% year‑to‑date, the bulls look pretty comfy – not so much expecting a bounce back to the 4‑ziggies of 2021, though.
Our long‑term view is still bullish: Q3 earnings have beat fanfare for five straight quarters with YoY growth, the economy is holding its ground, and that beloved Fed put is keeping the mood bright. Yet with the presidential election just two weeks out and the market feeling boastful, a bit of equity trimming could be smart short‑term.
Gold’s Rollercoaster Ride
Gold has taken a picture‑perfect PNG of a bull market: hitting a fresh high of over $2,700 per ounce on Friday. While the fundamentals look shaky, the momentum factor is so convincing that we’re kept our cool… for now.
Currency Math: Europe and the UK in the Mix
- ECB’s first consecutive cuts in a decade: a nice treat for the euro, letting the Fed loose a comparable pace.
- Bank of England eyes November‑December cuts after a surprisingly mild inflation reading.
- The USD stays sunny, flirting close to its two‑month peak – thanks to a tight disciplinary curve and a “U.S. only” rate‑cut bias.
Why the Dollar’s Smiles Don’t Kick Gold Out
In theory, a strong dollar and steeper Treasury curve should drive gold down. In reality, gold stays stubbornly high, again behaving more like a high‑speed rally than a solid anchor.
Everything Ahead – What to Expect
The next day is a quiet pause: no major data, no big sticky headlines. The tone is, straightforwardly, a “let’s take a breather.”
What’s on the Horizon?
- Three Fed speakers will be on the mic, kicking off a pressing week of central‑bank commentary.
- The IMF‑World Bank forum will ignite Washington’s temp radios, producing “noise” that’s louder than signal.
- Quarterly earnings will step up to a second “busiest” level – flagging SAP as the only headline worth noting on Thursday.
All in all: expect a calm atmosphere with the occasional flash of central‑bank chatter. We’ll keep the scrolling light and the vibes real.
