United States Jobs Squeeze Amid Stormy Weather—Markets Stay Cool
After the latest U.S. employment stats, investors found nothing to fuss about. The numbers were so noisy that the only takeaway was a plateful of “rain‑induced” anomalies—no real signal for policy makers.
What the data really said
- Frequent‐sector payrolls ticked up by a modest 12 000 in October, a figure that was heavily dented by a handful of outlier events: a Boeing strike, Hurricanes Helene and Milton, and a spate of workers forced to take a rain‑day to bed.
- Over 500,000 people were marked as temporarily out of work because of the storms—this is the largest count yet since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began recording weather‑related absences in the 1970s.
- Average hourly earnings climbed 0.4 % month‑over‑month, because the weather‑hit jobs were largely those on lower incomes.
- Unemployment stayed steady at 4.1 %; differences arose between employer-driven and household surveys in how they treated those whose work was put on hold.
Bottom line: this October jobs report will have almost no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee’s outlook. The Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Friday, but the market has largely shrugged off these muted figures.
Treasuries go a little wobbly
Despite the lack of a compelling driver, bonds took a modest sell‑off. The 10‑year yield topped 4.4 %, nudging up about 10 bp— the highest level since July. This slide is reminiscent of a ‘Trump‑style’ rally, but pre‑election polls have been tightening and the narrative seems a bit outlandish.
When the us‑$ becomes a safe‑haven, one always expects a nice uptick. The dollar (DXY) prowled into the 104 territory, approaching a weekly high. If the election adds more uncertainty, the demand for the buck could spike—though it seems the outlook is already in favor of a stronger U.S. economy.
On the equity front, the big indices finished the week on a positive note, with tech headlines leading the charge thanks to solid earnings reports from Amazon and Intel. Any short‑term dips will be bargain‑hunters’ dreams, but overall, the bullish fundamentals remain intact.
JAPANESE YEN suffers the heat
The yen was the biggest loser—still the cleanest G10 rate proxy—and continues to wobble due to internal political uncertainty in Japan’s coalition talks.
Current market mood and tomorrow’s showdown
Today’s agenda is light; however, most minds are already toggling to tomorrow’s presidential election. Expect some de‑risking and position‑squaring as the money managers prepare for potential surprises.
- The day’s eurozone manufacturing PMI is unlikely to shift the market significantly.
- U.S. factory orders show intact trends; nothing headline‑worthy.
- The 3‑year Treasury outlook may be of interest given last week’s 2‑ and 5‑year rates doubled up on tail risks.
Stay tuned for tomorrow—because the real drama is almost here.
