Milei's First Year: Argentina's Economy Advances While Facing New Challenges

One‑Year in Argentina: The Milei Roller Coaster

After a full year of Javier Milei steering the ship, Argentina’s economy looks like a mixed‑up bakery: some pastries rise, others crumble, but the overall batch is worth a taste.

GDP – A Tablet of Good & Bad

Q3 2024 3.9% – Seasonally adjusted growth, mainly thanks to a 12% jump in fixed‑capital investment. The reporters called this “the sweet spot.”
Exports – A knees‑deep 20.1% year‑on‑year surge, with November itself shooting up 31.6% to US $6.479 billion. Think of it as Argentina’s “give‑away” giveaway – the farm, agribusiness, and manufactured goods are pulling in the crowd.
Trade Balance – A US $1.234 billion surplus in November (12 straight months of positives). Thanks to 4.3% dip in imports, the country is shaking up reserves and calming the economy.

GDP Shrinks, Yet We Still Count on the Upswing

Despite the quarterly boost, GDP is down 2.1% YoY, a reminder that the pie remains uneven. Construction and wholesale/retail trade fell 14.9% and 6.1%, respectively – looks like the backyard project is still on hold. Public spending cut, local demand slack.

Private Consumption – Stabilised with a 4.6% seasonally adjusted rise but shrank 3.2% YoY.
Fixed‑Capital Formation – A 16.8% YoY loss, especially in construction and machinery, which hits long‑term growth negatively.

Job Market – The Cure Might Mess Up the Prescription

Unemployment – 6.9% in Q3, the best rank since late 2023. The agricultural sector stepped in like a hero.
Under‑employment – 11.4%. That’s the real plot twist: job quality remains low, and people still hustle to meet their needs.

What Happens Next? Balancing Hard‑Edge Reforms With Inclusive Growth

The Milei administration is walking a tightrope. International investors cheer, but the real challenge is to keep the macro‑economy in check, ride the trade wave, and turn the short‑term gains into a solid, fair future for everyone.