Nasdaq 100 leaps 55% in a year – 30% ahead still dubbed 'normal'

What’s the Deal with the QQQ’s Recent Surge?

QQQ, the go‑to ETF that mirrors the Nasdaq‑100, has leapt a whopping 54.6 % in the past year. Some folks are jumping with joy, while others are warning that it might be crashing faster than a runaway roller‑coaster.

Pullbacks Are Part of the Game

Every once in a while, the market takes a breather after a big rally:

10 % pullback – pretty standard.
15 % pullback – still common, but a tad scarier.
20 %+ drop – the stuff investors dread.

We’ll focus on the last group—those major sell‑offs that follow a rally. Below, we’ll look at QQQ’s history since 2008 when big swings like these occurred.

Historical Rallies and Their Lightning‑Fast Drops

Here’s a quick rundown of the most dramatic QQQ moves:

From the 2008 trough, QQQ surged 388 % and in 2015 it slid 26 %.
After bouncing off 2015 lows, it shot up 128 % before falling 23 % in late 2018.
Starting from the 2018 low, a 67 % rally was followed by a 30 % plunge during the 2020 pandemic.
From the 2020 floor, QQQ leapt 150 % to hit a peak in late 2021, only to tumble 34 %. It then rallied 24 % and fell another 24 %, ending up a grand 37 % south of its 2021 high.
Since late 2022, QQQ has already gone up 78 %.

Analyst Spotlight: Cory Mitchell’s Take

Trading.biz’s Cory Mitchell weighed in: “Over the last 16 years, the rally QQQ is experiencing isn’t out of the ordinary. Since 2008, the average climb after a low point is around 183 %, and the median is about 139 %, excluding the current trend.

The kicker? “Given this context, a 78 % run could realistically stretch to somewhere between 140 % and 180 % before a 20 % pullback does its usual dance. That’s pretty typical.”

Bottom Line

So, if you’re watching QQQ, you’ll be staring at a roller‑coaster that’s not a stranger to steep drops. History tells us that trillions of dollars can swing in and out of the market fast, and while the latest climb feels “woo‑hoo,” the next few months could see a sharp correction. Keep an eye on those numbers, stay grounded, and enjoy the ride—just don’t forget your seatbelt!

QQQ’s Hot‑Spot Reality Check: A Quick‑Guide to the Latest Bull Run

Why Crossing a Past Peak Matters

When an index like QQQ shoots past one of its old all‑time highs, traders usually take it as a good sign—an instinctive “bullish traffic light.” In late 2023, QQQ pushed beyond the 2021 peak, beating the summit set back in late 2021.

How the Story Looks in Numbers

2010: Exceeded the 2007 high and then jumped a staggering 121 % before pulling back 20 %.
2015: Overcame the 2015 high, rallying 69 % on the way.
2018: Broke the 2018 benchmark with a 28 % surge.
Pre‑COVID High: Skipped past it and then surged 68 % before a 20 % slide.
Now: Only about 11 % above the 2021 plateau—so the uppermost climb is still a long way out of reach.

Quick Reality Check

If the current momentum stalls, this would be the shortest climb above a prior high since 2008—think of it as a tennis match where the ball just didn’t bounce high enough.

The Betting Pitch: $560–$575 as a Pre‑Pullback Target

Based on past “bang‑bang” rallies, a realistic goal for QQQ before a 20 % dip sits around $560–$575. That’s roughly 30 % higher than today’s price level.

Remember the “Past Isn’t Future” Rule

Time is a sour note; the patterns we see over the last few years might not play out forever. Keep your position sizing tight and manage risk like a seasoned pro.