Nasdaq’s Near‑50‑Day Dance
Right now the Nasdaq‑100 is hovers just shy of the 50‑day moving average—think of it as a loaf of bread hovering over the crumb line at 16,100. The market’s feeling a bit… ripe.
Why the Mini‑Drop? Profit‑Taking or Panic?
Recent news buzz: U.S. job data drops in on Friday, so traders are trimming positions. That’s the 1.6% dip seen last week. Folks at the desk want the sweet spot where numbers say “buy” and the indicators say “you’ve got this.”
Fed‑Faces: Cutting or Sticking?
- Minutes from the latest Fed meeting? They’re firm: keep rates high… for the foreseeable future.
- Everybody knows this is a hard tumble for tech hangries, especially the Nasdaq, which punishes any sign of slower momentum.
Apple and Nvidia: The 4% Drop Comedy
Apple fell 4% after Barclays downgraded the A‑company, thinking you might still need a phone where the screen ain’t tiny. Nvidia echoed that, sliding 4% and scrubbing over $100 B off its market cap lullaby. Both got hit because iPhone demand sniped on the headline numbers.
New Year, New Hopes: Patience as a Poker Face
Investors are tightening their belts, waiting for the right “price play” to jump into the market. The fallout from the insurance tech stocks has left Nasdaq down 1.6%, S&P 500 sliding 0.6%, and Dow chipping 0.1%, making the whole bat‑wing down around 0.7 %.
Soft Landing? The Golden Ticket
Glen thinks the U.S. economy will avoid a “deep” recession. That “soft landing” notion has become the favourite song, as markets bet on interest‑rate cuts later this year while inflation slowly drifts away from its 9.1 % peak back in June 2022.
Risks on the Horizon
- Unexpected inflation shocks with rising oil prices.
- Geopolitical drama from Russia‑Ukraine to Gaza.
- Oil price spikes can derail Fed cuts and the promised landing.
The year’s valuations are inflated—post‑December highs don’t leave much wiggle room, so any negative surprise will rattle the market. This risk is the biggest in 2024, with recession anxiety being the drumbeat.
Election Year Puzzles: Lower Returns Are the Rule
Every election year historically yields a tad lower return compared to normal times. But a silver lining remains: a modest upside can come if the economy slides into that soft recession lens and the Fed turns the rate lever down soon.
Bottom line: keep your eyes peeled, stay patient, and you might just catch the next big wave—even if the market’s feeling the wobble.
Technical analysis of the NASDAQ 100 (US100) prices
Tech Titans Get a Reality Check
At the very start of 2023, analysts were already in a deep, melodramatic mood about what was coming for the biggest names in silicon and servers. All that flash and hype had to face the icy reality of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate hike. With interest rates cresting at 5.25%–5.50%—the highest they’ve been since 2001—the consensus inked across the industry is that the U.S. economy is nudging toward a recession.
Three Months Later: A Surprising Turn of Events
March threw its own curveball. The regional bank crisis amplified fears of a downturn, yet the U.S. economy stayed surprisingly sturdy. It seems the economic bodyguards are punching hard, keeping the market from sliding into a gulley.
What’s Happening With the Nasdaq?
- Current trading level: 16,261 points
- Below the 50‑day moving average, which usually signals a rough patch
- But there’s a solid support line holding — think of it as the economic equivalent of a floor under the falling dollar.
So, before you gear up to make new investments in the stock indices—especially that modish Nasdaq 100—hold your horses. This isn’t the time for full‑on, impulsive buys. We’re looking at a landscape where caution is the new fashion.
Bottom Line
Tech giants wake up to a new reality: higher interest rates and a looming recession. But an unexpected resilience in the broader economy keeps the market from dropping like a bad soda. For investors, the advice remains simple— thoroughly research, stay cautious, and don’t let the hype blind you.
Why the Nasdaq 100 Might Be on a Roller Coaster
Good news, the NASDAQ 100 is having a bit of a mood swing. Let’s break down what’s going on without getting too heavy into the jargon.
What the 4‑Hour “Elliott Wave” Mystery Says
- The chart shows that the last big dip (fourth wave) wiped out at 16,583.75 and the bulls lost steam.
- We’re headed into the “fifth wave” of a bearish move, likely sliding straight down to the 16,410 – 16,357 corridor.
- Those numbers line up with cool Fibonacci levels: 1.236 and 1.618 respectively.
- After that, expect a weak counter‑pull‑back on the upside before the decline packs back up.
Is The Current Trend Still Going Down?
Don’t lose hope yet! Even if the price skids below the peak of 17,165.94, the 4‑hour chart still thinks there’s room to keep falling.
Daily Chart Gets a Bit of a Nudge
- The daily view shows a little bounce off the 19… 17,800 yardage line and it’s hanging around a big stopping point.
- The moving average and the RSI turned bearish right after the price ran out of the buying‑climax zone.
- Lives the 50‑day SMA at 16,311.80 – hold steady. If it keeps sliding under there, we’re looking at more decline.
What Happens If the Prices Drop Below the 50‑Day SMA?
- Should the weekly and daily close finish under the 16,311.80, the Nasdaq could keep walking down into next week’s support at 15,946.60.
- Fail that, the 200‑day SMA at 14,915.14 will be the next test to face.
When the Market Takes a Breath
- If it bounces from any of those support levels, investors might see a rally right back up to the yearly high of 17,165.94 before a final slide is on the cards.
Key Levels to Watch
- Support: 15,946.60 – 14,915.14 – 14,322.25
- Resistance: 16,311.80 – 16,438 – 17,000
What’s Next for the NASDAQ?
This chart says—stay tuned! Whether the price stumbles above the 17,165.94 peak or slides below 15,946.60, the big question is, “will the bulls make a comeback or will the bears take over?” Keep your eyes on these lines, and who knows? The market could flip again any minute.
