Market Move: Stocks Take a Bumpy Ride, Biden vs. Trump Debate, and the Ultimate Job Openings Drama
Yesterday’s trading was a repeat performance – more of the same tumble as investors rushed for safe havens. The S&P 500 slid 2.7%, finally slipping past its 200‑day moving average after 18 months of comfortably sitting above it. The Nasdaq 100 suffered its biggest single‑day loss since September 2022. Whether you’re a new trader or a seasoned veteran, the market’s mood was clear: keep your feet firmly planted in the risk‑averse basket.
Why the Squeeze Is Still On
- Policymakers warn that the U.S. economy might be losing steam, and the Biden administration keeps nudging about “short‑term pain for long‑term gain.”
- Trump’s refusal to rule out a recession this year – coupled with Treasury Secretary Bressent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinting at a slowdown – validates the sense that the “Trump put” has been killed, or at least pushed far below its original strike price.
- Even if Trump and his crew managed to trim government waste and kick‑start the private sector, folks still prefer the bear case in the short term: growth expectations are sliding, earnings forecasts are dropping, and policy uncertainty remains a heavy cloud.
What’s Happening to the Dollar and the Euro?
On a slightly positive note for the Treasury bulls, benchmark yields climbed across the curve, especially the belly of the curve. This dovish sentiment put pressure on the greenback, which eased against most major partners. The Euro had a little wobble after some German Green Party drama, but we’re still betting on a bullish stance. In classic EU fashion, the mess likely gets sorted out but takes its time.
Today’s Quiet Desk
Despite the sluggish data scene, one headline shines: January JOLTS job openings hit 7.63 million, up from 7.60 million the month before. If the numbers come in soft, the market will probably double down on its nervous attitude towards economic slowing.
Upcoming Auction and Central Bank Moves
- Three‑year U.S. Treasury auction kicks off a busy week of supply, followed by 10‑year and 30‑year sales on Wednesday and Thursday.
- In the pre‑meeting “blackout” period for the FOMC, today’s spotlight is on ECB’s Rehn.
So there you have it: amid a low‑lying data horizon and political chatter, the market’s still playing a cautious game.
