Northern Ireland Trade Drops Hard as New Post-Brexit Rules Tighten

Brexit’s After‑Shock: The Trade Tumble in Northern Ireland

While Trump’s tariff tantrums make headlines, there’s a quieter saga unfolding across the Irish Sea. Parcelhero, the delivery‑savvy group that knows every shipment’s pulse, reports that the Brexit rules still grind trade tighter than ever.

New Rules, New Red Tape

Late March saw the rollout of the Green and Red Channel scheme, a side‑product of Rishi Sunak’s Windsor Framework. The goal was a painless flow of goods between Great Britain (England, Scotland, Wales) and Northern Ireland, but the reality feels like a maze of paperwork.

Green Channel: Goods cleared as non‑EU‑danger pay no extra duties.
Red Channel: Anything at risk of slipping into the EU market must cover full EU customs fees.

Unfortunately, most traders are stuck in the red; the green path seems almost mythical.

The Numbers That Knot

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Business Insights shows a chilling trend:

30.8% of retailers based in Great Britain reported a sharp drop in shipments to NI in June vs. May.
Only 3.5% saw a rise.
Alarmingly, 10.8% of GB retailers stopped shipping to NI entirely.

Transport & storage partners echo the slump: 29.6% moved fewer goods.

Long‑Term Decline

It’s not a one‑off dip. Over the past year:

Only 14.5% of GB retailers have shipped to NI; 77.3% haven’t.
A similar story for manufacturers: 14.8% active vs. 76.7% inactive.

Back in January 2021, trade was still vibrant—17.5% of retailers and 20.1% of manufacturers were actively exporting to NI. That bar has steadily fallen.

Why the Framework Fell Flat

The new system expects parcel carriers to become UK Internal Market Scheme “trusted traders”, supposedly easing movement. Yet major couriers have pulled the plug on B2B services to NI, offering only B2C/C2C routes.

Transport & storage firms confirm the nightmare: 94.8% haven’t moved any goods to NI in the last year. The few that remain note:

10% bump in July volumes.
43.9% flat.
29.6% down.

Retail Shockwaves

A Wimbledon‑level decline in footfall follows the freight dip. The Northern Ireland Retail Consortium reports:

–5.2% footfall YOY in June.
–3% in July.

With fewer products flowing in, shoppers face narrower choices.

Carrier Warnings

Couriers are sounding the alarm: if you haven’t uploaded all the right data to the UK Internal Market Scheme profile, your goods won’t move into NI.

And it’s not just NI—post‑Brexit rules now impose extra charges on shipments to the Republic of Ireland as well.

So while Trump’s tariffs grab the spotlight, it’s actually Brexit’s lingering labyrinth that’s strangling trade with Northern Ireland—one parcel at a time.