Brexit Still Reeling the Trade World—Long Past the Trump Tariff Wars
While headlines scream about Trump’s tariff tantrums, the real drama is unfolding on quieter streets – in the straits of Northern Ireland. PM Rishi Sunak’s Windsor Framework promised a smooth trade path, but the Green‑ and Red‑Channel rules have left many retailers in a semi‑pitiful slump.
Red Tape, Not Red Lights
- 30.8% of GB‑based retailers saw their shipment volumes to Northern Ireland drop in June, compared to a mere 3.5% that reported an uptick.
<li 10.8% of those retailers have completely stopped shipping to NI – a big, unsettling number.
<li Transport & storage firms echo the trend: 29.6% report a decrease, 43.9% see no change, but 29.6% warn that volumes are falling too.
Why the Wink‑and‑Twist Trade Rules?
The framework introduced a Green Channel for items not deemed at risk of entering the EU and a Red Channel for the riskier ones. Green goods sail without new duties; Red goods must cough up full EU customs fees. It sounds simple, but the paperwork nightmare makes B2B moves feel like a puzzle with missing pieces.
Couriers, meanwhile, pivoted: many now only offer B2C/C2C services to Northern Ireland—leaving B2B shipping a ghost of its former self.
Retail Impact: From Pain to Puzzlement
Over the last 12 months, only 14.5% of GB retailers have shipped to NI, down from the 77.3% who haven’t. Manufacturers show a similar slump: 14.8% engaged vs. 76.7% not. The sharp drop is stark when compared with 2021, when 17.5% of retailers and 20.1% of manufacturers kept exporting to NI.
Meanwhile, the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium reports footfall falling by 5.2% in June and 3.0% in July—a clear signal that consumer choice is shrinking, perhaps as a result of these export woes.
What’s the Bottom Line?
- Shipped goods must be accurately entered into the UK Internal Market Scheme profile or they’ll be stuck outside NI.
- Exporters aren’t alone; shipments to the Republic of Ireland now face their own set of post‑Brexit tariffs and regulations.
- Even with the supposed simplicity of the Windsor Framework, the reality is a minefield of paperwork and redesigned processes, proving Brexit’s trade ripple is still deep‑rooted.
In a world where tariffs get headline action, it’s the quiet, ongoing congestion in the Northern Irish corridor that’s quietly skewing trade dynamics. And guess what? The lesson is clear: buy pressure, redo paperwork, and keep your shipment data on point.
