Nvidia and AMD set to funnel 15% of Chinese AI chip sales to U.S. Treasury

New Chip Deal: A Story in Two Parts

Just less than two months after the U.S. decided to loosen the levers on semiconductor exports to China, a fresh agreement has hit the market. It puts Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips on the front line, turning them into the “must‑have” prerequisites for getting an export license.

What the Deal Means for Sales

The 15% tax on top‑line revenue is unlike anything before. It’s like a new surcharge on every dollar you earn.
Only lower‑spec versions of the chips can ship. Those are the models that sit below the cutting‑edge ones currently sprinting off U.S. production lines.
Because of the extra bite, profit margins shrink – the tax now acts as a quirky, unofficial fee.

Opting into this arrangement gives American firms a lifeline to a market that still screams profit, but it comes at a cost. For Nvidia, China offers a runway that could translate into tens of billions of dollars in annual earnings today. The new rules are a trade‑off: keep the revenue flowing, but keep the technology under lock and key.

Why the U.S. Is Playing Six‑Side Chess

The Washington officials say they’re balancing act – allowing firms to grow market share, yet keeping a tight eye on advanced chips. Meanwhile, the 15% tax becomes a direct source of state income. It’s an unusual strategy that finances the American push into the next tier of semiconductor technology.

Will the Dice Favor America?

Even with these restrictions, China can still upgrade its AI and computing capabilities—though the new chips lag a step behind the world’s best Blackwell‑class talent. In the medium term, the tech gap might narrow but the U.S. still holds the upper hand.

China gets to buy second‑tier U.S. chips, slowing the race to the top.
The U.S. rings‑fences the very best designs for now.
Credit where it’s due: China’s rise to the second‑largest player in the sector shows how domestic and external resources can fuse together.

In short, we’re witnessing a shift from pure competition to a battlefield where geopolitical aims and clever fiscal tools fight side by side. Whether this unconventional approach pays off remains to be seen, but the next 12 months will offer the big reveal.