OECD’s core inflation steadies at 5.7% in February while food price growth slows, boosting economic outlook

Inflation Update: A Roller‑Coaster of Prices in 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the OECD remained rock‑steady at 5.7% last month, a slight dip from the near‑6% plateau that started in May 2023. It’s like the economy decided to take a breather rather than sprint.

Headline Inflation’s Game‑Changer

Three‑quarters of OECD members saw their headline inflation slide, led by Poland and Sweden, which made the biggest monthly drops. In contrast, Türkiye threw a “surprise!” by pulling the inflation needle upward.

Seven countries tipped below 2.0%—not a bad spot.
Costa Rica stayed negative, proving that some places still have bargains to brag about.

Food Prices Take a Chill Break

Food costs kept falling for the 15th straight month, settling at 5.3% in February (down from 6.3% in January). Only four OECD members saw food inflation climb.

For the first time since November 2021, food inflation lagged behind headline inflation—a sweet win for grocery shoppers.

Energy and Core Inflation: The Story Continues

Energy inflation dipped to a modest –0.5%, despite Turkey and Colombia turning up the heat. Meanwhile, core inflation (the “food and energy excludable” part) still hovered at a high 6.4%, thanks to stubborn services prices that just won’t budge.

G7 & Euro Area: Cool Down or Warm Up?

The G7’s year‑on‑year inflation hit its lowest point since April 2021, at 2.9% in February.

Japan’s inflation rose slightly, a relic of the 2023 energy subsidy boost that kept prices low.
The UK and Germany saw the biggest headline inflation decreases in the G7.
Core inflation remained the key driver of headline climbs across most G7 nations.

In the euro zone, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) slipped to 2.6% from 2.8% in January. Food inflation dropped roughly twice as fast as the OECD average, while core inflation moved at a comparable pace.

Eurostat’s March flash estimate hinted at a continued decline: headline inflation could dip to 2.4%, and core inflation might fall to 2.9% after a 3.1% high in February—thanks to a slowing energy price fall.

G20 Watch: When China and Argentina Shine (or Stumble)

Year‑on‑year inflation climbed to 6.9% in February, the highest since March 2023. China’s headline inflation turned positive for the first time since August 2023, giving economists a double‑edged candle. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia’s inflation jumped too, while Argentina went full throttle.

Brazil and South Africa stayed pretty steady, proving they’re not as wild in their inflation stories.