Crude Oil Cements Its Rise Amid Chinese Economic Wobbles
Good news for oil traders: Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged up by roughly 0.3% this morning. They’re still swaying in a gentle dance of sideways movement, hovering near the lowest points of March, but the tick is encouraging.
Oil Prices: A Tiny Bounce
- Brent +0.3 %
- WTI +0.3 %
- Trend: Near flat since early May
- Close to March’s low‑water mark
China’s Production & Investment Snapshot
While the market is jiggling, China’s factories have been a bit more spry than predicted.
- Industrial output jumped 6.7% in April YoY — far above the expected 5.5%.
- Fixed‑asset investment (excluding property) slowed to 4.2% from 4.5% — a cough in the growth line.
- Property investments took a plunge of 9.8%, turning the whole figure upside‑down.
- Without that dip, the total would have shone at 8.9% — a bright spot the statistics office pointed out.
Retail & Housing Outlook
Things aren’t as rosy on the consumer side.
- Retail sales slowed to 2.3% from 3.1% — the slowest bump since December 2022.
- New home prices fell 0.58% month‑to‑month in April, the steepest slide since 2014.
What This Means For Oil Demand
Even with the hiccups in household spending and property markets, the “big guy” — China — is still poised to keep gnawing oil. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) nudged up expected consumption for 2024 (+0.4%) and 2025 (+0.9%), hinting that global demand will lean heavily on China’s relentless production.
US & Eurozone Economic Snapshots
- US: Economy keeps paddling forward, though the EIA trimmed 2024 oil demand by 0.4%.
- Higher longer rates might stall economic wind, curbing oil use.
- Trade war tension could throttle volume, dragging on trade figures.
- Eurozone: Resurgent service activities and labor stability breathe new life into growth.
- Recent surveys (ZEW, Ifo, PMI) show optimism for manufacturing’s turnaround.
So, the underlying chorus is clear: Chinese output is humming, U.S. markets are still marching, and the European union is stepping up its game. Even as consumer and property moods wobble, crude oil’s trajectory remains on an upward curve — a buoyant, if cautious, climb that keeps traders guessing.
