Oil Prices Got a Wake‑Up Call: Elections, Hurricanes, and a Hint of Trump
Crude futures have been jittery as traders tried to guess what the U.S. election will do to the market. The big “what‑if” is whether the next president will bring back Donald Trump’s maximum‑pressure policy on Iranian and Venezuelan exports—an echo that could tighten supply and push prices up.
Supply Concerns Keep the Heat on
- Hurricane Rafael is still a threat to Gulf Coast production, a storm that’s already paused more than 17 % of output in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Supply worries could win over the downward drag from higher inventories and a stronger post‑election dollar.
- Trump’s pro‑business stance could bump demand, but a shift in Fed policy might throw another curveball at the market.
What’s the Bottom Line?
The mix of supply risk and geopolitical drama hints that crude prices will probably climb in the near term as traders brace themselves for more possible disruptions. Even though there was an early spike, the gains may stall over the next few months as OPEC plans Jan‑full supply increases, easing some of the tightness.
Why a Mid‑Term Rally Seems Limited
- OPEC’s planned production bump could offset the supply squeeze.
- Inventories are still swoll‑ing larger than expected, which directly cools the bullish vibe.
- Therefore, the medium‑term outlook leans more bearish—the market may settle as supply stabilizes.
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