Oil Prices Creep Up After Rough Winter
After a rock‑bottom march in the past month and a half, Brent and WTI crept up more than a quarter‑percent on Friday. Big picture? Markets still feel the chill of a tense Gaza situation and the ever‑looming possibility that the U.S. might cool off interest rates later this year.
Gaza Talks and Market Mood
- Ceasefire hope: Many regional players are pushing for a temporary pause in Gaza – the idea is that a ground push in Rafah would turn the conflict into a whole new mess.
- Uncertainty reigns: Even if talk is trending towards calm, a sudden collapse could send the Israeli side into a hard‑edge ground campaign, especially under pressure from the far‑right.
OPEC+ Holds the Lines
Oil majors are watching for OPEC+ to extend a 2.2 million‑barrel‑per‑day production cut into the second half of the year. If demand keeps slumping, the cut may keep prices flat or even lower. The only other thing that could lift the market is a big‑time escalation – in the Middle East or in Ukraine.
US Rates, Labor, and Oil Strategy
- Rate outlook: Traders expect no drop in borrowing costs until September at the earliest.
- Labour data: Strong non‑farm payrolls, unbeaten job openings, or a surge in average hourly pay could encourage the “higher for longer” rate hypothesis, putting pressure on oil.
- Corporate earnings: Quarterly results from giants like Shell and ConocoPhillips fell short. Shell’s disappointing numbers and ConocoPhillips’ winter cold‑weather woes are dampening optimism.
So while the benchmark prices nudged up, the real story is that oil markets are still tied to geopolitical tempests, cutting production schedules, and a possible monetary tightening that’s keeping everyone on the edge of their seat.
