The Labour Market: A Classic Story of Fewer Jobs and Bigger Bills
Morning’s ONS data on Q1 is a textbook case of “what you see is what you get.” With a fresh minimum‑wage push and a knob‑up on employer national insurance, the numbers are exactly where we expected them.
Key Take‑aways
- Employment dipped – fewer people have tidy jobs.
- Unemployment crept upward – more folks are on the sidelines.
- Job vacancies collapsed back to pre‑COVID levels – companies aren’t desperately hiring.
- Inactivity went down a touch – great for the laggards, but it may have quietly pushed unemployment up.
Those who are working feel a little lift: real earnings are higher. But the rosy picture fades when taxes bite hard as wages slip into bands that aren’t getting a price‑level bump. The extra tax takes the shine out of the income gains.
What’s on the Horizon?
Nothing bright is looming to rescue the job market. New rules in the Employment Rights Bill—coming in the next 18 months—are priming employers to think twice before hiring. This extra cost makes them especially cautious about younger and less experienced workers.
All told, the outlook is… well, drizzle‑ish. It doesn’t provide the growth the Chancellor hopes for to balance the books.
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