FOMC’s Chill Infusion: PCE’s Low‑Skip Leaves Us Waiting for Price Relief
Hey economists and coffee lovers alike—ready for a quick dive into the latest consumer price vibes? Friday’s core PCE release is set to rescue the FOMC from its “hot‑mouth” worries, but let’s not get carried away.
The PCE Low‑Grade: A Relatively Quiet Month
For the first time this year, the core PCE climbed at its slowest tick, confirming the bumpy, “disinflation” track the U.S. economy’s on. Think of it as a car that’s hiking down a hill: a smooth, gradual descent instead of a skidding plunge.
What the data tells us:
- Monthly rise dipped to its lowest point of 2024.
- Price pressures seem to be taking a breather, not blasting ahead.
- FOMC’s breath is temporarily eased, but hardly a “vitamin‑C” boost.
One Good print? Not Enough for a Rate Cut!
Just because one bottle of “espresso” is fresh doesn’t mean the whole café will brew a latte. Likewise, this single PCE print is not a sign‑post that policymakers are ready to trim rates.
Key takeaway: The market’s still holding its breath for a first rate cut, probably headed for early–autumn. That will only happen if price trends keep cooling for the coming quarters.
Bottom line for FOMC folks:
- Keep an eye on the monthly trend—less “sprint” means safer “scooter”.
- Gotta see if price pressure stays light before upping the rate call.
- Remember: good data is like a gentle nudge—policy shifts still need a full boardroom consensus.
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