Persistent Inflation Surges Past BoE Target, Straining Household Budgets

Persistent Inflation Surges Past BoE Target, Straining Household Budgets

Why Inflation Is Still on the Over‑rate Watch

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is waving a red flag that inflation will stay above the Bank of England’s comfy target. In fact, the OBR’s latest forecast pushes the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) for 2024 to about 2.5%—up from the previous 2.2% estimate.

What sparked the bump?

  • Household budgets are still feeling the squeeze.
  • Petrol prices have not given us the relief we expected.
  • September’s drop to a three‑year low (1.7%) was a nice surprise, but it’s short‑lived.

Bank of England moves… or not

In August the Bank cut rates from a 16‑year high of 5.25% to 5%. Whether it’ll trim the base rate again in November is still up in the air.

OBR’s sneak peek into the coming years

  • 2024: CPI at 2.6%
  • 2025: 2.3%
  • 2026: 2.1%
  • 2027: 2.0%

Market chatter

Money markets are betting that the Monetary Policy Committee might slash rates to 4.75% next month, but the certainty is as shaky as a wobbly glass of tea.

Stay tuned!

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