Q4 Trade Activity Sees Small Upswing

UK Trade Still in the Down‑trend, but Orders Are Showing a Glimpse of Sunshine

Tradeshift’s latest “Index of Global Trade Health” tells us that, in Q4, the UK’s total trade activity sat 5 points below the baseline range. That’s a notch above the previous quarter’s 6‑point slump. A tiny uptick—no doubt, but still a contraction.

What’s Driving the Slight Bounce?

All this came from a surprise new‑orders spike during the fourth quarter. Tradeshift’s platform, which tracks purchase orders and invoice flow, shows UK order volumes climbing 1 point above the expected range. For the first time in two years, fresh orders have outpaced forecasts.

This pattern mirrors the global figure: 4 points below baseline in Q4, compared to a 6‑point deficit earlier. Yet, worldwide order volumes shot up 5 points above expected in 2023, a stark reversal after nine consecutive quarters of under‑performance.

Western Markets Follow the Trend

U.S. – Transaction volume steadied at 3 points below baseline in Q4 (down from the prior quarter). Order levels surged to 6 points above expectations, the most dramatic lift in two years.
Eurozone – Formerly fell 9 points below expectations, now at 4 points below in Q3. Order volumes for the region ticked to 3 points above baseline in Q4.

What James Stirk Says

“Ordering patterns give us useful clues as to how businesses are viewing demand signals for the next six months,” says James Stirk, CEO of Tradeshift. “If order volumes continue to rise in Q1, then we should start to see activity levels climb in key sectors like manufacturing and logistics.”

Freight and Manufacturing Remain Pessimistic

Freight capacity demand is still 6 points below baseline in Q4—so the order uptick hasn’t yet flipped the long‑term decline that’s stretched into a 18‑month saga. Manufacturing transactions hung steady at 6 points below expectations.

China’s Trade Keeps Slipping — But Tiny Gains are Visible

Trade in China also remains in contraction territory, only nudging up from a mid‑year slump. Local supply‑chain volumes were 5 points below baseline in Q4 (up from a 6‑point deficit just before).

“The protracted slowdown in orders we’ve seen has left a lot of ground to recover before demand starts to show any concrete signs of normalising,” Stirk adds. “Our latest data suggests sentiment among businesses is improving, but any growth in Q4 is coming from a low base. While I’m cautiously optimistic, the outlook for 2024 remains heavily in balance.”