FOMC’s Sticky Rate Game: Nothing to Move—Just Korean Rice
As the Fed’s big meeting rolls up, the consensus is that rates will stay at what they’re already at. The only thing this leaves in the air is a wobble of inflation that’s still dancing above the 2 % target the Fed’s been eyeing.
Inflation Numbers: The Numbers Say “Hang On”
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) – jumped 2.8 % year‑on‑year. That’s only a hair shy of the 2.9 % traders were nudging in their forecasts.
- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – 2.6 %. Yes, that’s another step up from the 2 % goal. The Fed loves PCE, but it’s still saying, “Hold tight out here.”
Equities Give a Tiny Lift, Markets Stay Cheerful
Because those inflation figures are a touch lower than feared, U.S. stocks nudged higher last week. The swing was soft, but hey, every lift counts when you’re watching the market gauge!
Lab‑Market: Still Gaining, Still Trollin’
- Jobs – 151,000 snagged in the last month, a smidge below the 160,000 many had hoped.
- Unemployment – stuck at 4.1 %. The low‑end nightmare is still lurking, but the breadth of jobs keeps the market heartbeat steady.
GDP Tumble: The Growth Bus is Running a Bit Slow
Economic gloom is creeping: GDP growth is now forecasted to wobble below 2 % – a nice little dip from the 2.4 % headline earlier in the year.
Consumer Confidence: Lowest Since 2022 (Bruh)
UMich’s survey spells out a sharp drop in folks’ willingness to spend. Inflation fears are in the trenches, and the “confidence” thermometer is dipping to numbers we haven’t seen since last winter.
Fed’s “Dots” – The Crystal Ball for the Future
They’re the FOMC members’ personal forecasts on what the rate road looks like. Investors will read them right away. The consensus? No rate cuts on the horizon, but this plotline could trim the market uncertainty curve.
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