Retailers In the Red: The 9‑Month Sales Squeeze
According to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey, every retail store is feeling the pinch. In June, annual sales volumes fell at a steep rate, marking the ninth month in a row of shrinking numbers.
What’s the Big Picture?
- Retail Volume Decline: Year‑to‑June figures dipped dramatically, slumping to a weighted balance of -46% compared to -27% in May.
- Seasonal Sales Woes: Even the “time of year” slipped. In June, sales were judged “poor” at a -37% level, versus -19% in May.
- Market Forecast: Retailers foresee another downturn next month, with predictions hovering around a -49% drop.
Online vs. Offline: A Little Silver Lining
While brick‑and‑mortar sales cramped, online retail sales edged up slightly—surging +6% year‑to‑June from a previous +37% in May. The digital storefronts look to grow again next month, targeting an +8% gain.
Wholesalers and Motor Trade: Slow‑Mo Slides
- Wholesalers saw a slower decline, down -34% year‑to‑June compared to -48% in May.
- Like wholesale, the motor trade also fell, though the industry suspects sales will be back down again in July, around -39%.
All‑Jets‑On‑Ground: Total Distribution Slides
When you add retail, wholesale, and motor sales together, the overall distribution sector contracts robustly at -39% year‑to‑June—down from -43% in May. Forecasts for July stay in the same ballpark, hovering around a -42% drop.
Experts Speak
Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist at CBI, offered his note:
“Retail sales volumes fell rapidly in the year up to June, extending the recent downturn into its ninth consecutive month. The contraction in retail was mirrored across wholesale and motor trades, with many firms reporting that consumer caution continues to hold back sales. These data suggest that underlying activity remains subdued in the distribution sector.”
He added a hopeful note:
“The Industrial Strategy comes at a critical time, setting out a credible plan to boost long‑term growth. Firms in the retail and broader distribution sector will welcome the investment in skills and the reduction of regulatory burdens, but these must go beyond the priority growth sectors to meaningfully boost local and national prosperity.”
What This Means for You
For shoppers: Expect a “less crowded” shop floor—less risk of long lines and more air to breathe. For store owners: It’s a bell‑wether that the industry is tightening its belt. And for anyone who enjoys a good sale, perhaps now’s the time to snag a deal before the next wave hits.
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