Retail sales up 1% in February, UK GDP confirmed at 0.1% in quarter 4

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2024, unrevised from the first estimate, the ONS revealed today. Meanwhile, retail sales volumes (quantity bought) are estimated to have risen by 1.0% in February 2025. This follows a rise of 1.4% in January 2025 (revised down from a rise of 1.7%).

Tony Redondo, Founder at Cosmos Currency Exchange commented: “The 0.1% GDP crawl and the savings spike point to a battening down of the hatches. The 0.1% figure, barely a pulse, shows the economy’s treading water rather than charging ahead in a clear sign of caution.

“Who can blame businesses and households for the caution when we know all too well the tax and utility bill rises coming in April? On top of that you have the IFS already warning of further tax rises on the horizon in October’s budget? Last one out, please switch off the lights.”

David Belle, Founder and Trader at Fink Money commented: “We have the largest differences between policy rate and growth. 4.5% versus 0.1% per quarter is astounding. Japan, for instance, is at 0.5% and 1.4% growth.

“I am unsure why the Bank of England is getting such a day off from our current issues, considering the Treasury’s indemnity of the Bank of England’s asset portfolio is costing the taxpayer £150bn up to 2030.”

Stephen Perkins, Managing Director at Yellow Brick Mortgages commented: “The UK economy is growing as much as artificial grass at the moment, with the damaging impacts of the tax on jobs still to hit after April. There are some real challenges for the economy in the next few months and it doesn’t appear the government has any solutions.”

Rob Mansfield, Independent Financial Advisor at Rootes Wealth Management commented: “GDP growing, albeit barely, is clearly a positive but we have yet to see the impact of the October budget tax rises that are coming in next week.

“The government is driving for growth but we’re at risk of stagflation where any growth is eaten away by inflation. It is good to see the combination of retail sales being up as well as the household saving rate. Spending today keeps the economy going but saving helps strengthen it for the future.”