Retail stalls as Christmas fails to spark a consumer confidence revival.

Black Friday’s Late‑December Shake‑Up Changes the Retail Picture

In 2024, Black Friday slipped into December, flipping the way sales lines up compared to last year when it landed in early November. That shift pushed some of the spike in spending out of the officially “golden quarter” (October‑December) and back into the month‑long holiday boom. The net effect? December’s numbers look surprisingly bright while the three‑month stretch to December appears a bit flatter, effectively canceling each other out.

Overall 2024 Retail Snapshot

UK total retail sales rose 0.7% year‑on‑year.
Food sales enjoyed a 3.3% jump.
Non‑food sales dipped 1.5% over the year.

Golden Quarter (Oct‑Dec) Trends

Growth during the Golden Quarter ticked up just 0.4% compared with the previous year, matching the 12‑month average for retail.

December 2024 Highlights

UK wholesale sales surged 3.2%, beating December 2023’s 1.9% and the 3‑month average of 0.4%.
Food sales climbed 1.7% from a 6.3% jump last year, still shy of the seasonal and yearly averages.
Non‑food sales rebounded 4.4% after a 2.1% slump in 2023, outpacing the usual 3‑month and 12‑month declines.
In‑store non‑food sales posted a modest 0.4% rise versus a 2.9% decrease a year earlier.
Online non‑food sites boomed 11.1% from a 0.8% drop previously, surpassing the typical 1.2% 3‑month growth and the 0.4% 12‑month decline.
The online penetration rate climbed to 39.6% from 37.2% in 2023, outpacing the 12‑month average of 36.6%.

Industry Voices

Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium, warned that after a shaky year and an unforgiving economic climate, the golden quarter delivered a muted finale. “Non‑food took the biggest hit, but food and festive items like beauty and jewellery had a bright spot.” She added that expected savings growth of 1.2% in 2025 falls short of the 1.8% price inflation, meaning many retailers may need to raise prices and curtail store initiatives, hurting high‑street community life.

Linda Ellett from KPMG noted that the late Black Friday, effectively part of the Christmas campaign, pushed sales forward. “Computing, mobile, and beauty products jumped online and in‑store—especially AI gadgets and beauty advent calendars—creating a notable uptick.” Yet the Golden Quarter’s modest rise reflects the continued cautiousness in household budgets amid higher costs.

Sarah Bradbury of IGD highlighted that grocery volumes and sales were higher than last December, yet growth has slowed compared to 2023. The seasonal lift in shopper confidence, lifted by wage gains outpacing inflation, helped December 2024, but she cautioned that rising bills and a damp 2025 outlook might curb this trend.