Oil Prices Take a Quick Upswing
The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hit a modest rebound, climbing 1.46% after dipping to $77.33 the day before. Today’s open shows it flirting with the $79.90 mark, steadier and more upbeat.
Why the Market’s Feeling a Bit Vicious
Geopolitical jitters are still steering prices up; supply disruptions loom. Add in the buzz that the Federal Reserve might jostle into easing this year, and the backdrop is all the more tense.
Mixed Signals from Consumer Price Index
A surprising spike in the U.S. CPI sent investor nerves into overdrive, raising doubts about any June interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq linger near record highs, with energy stocks acting like a cushion for the S&P, while tech names take a dip.
The dollar rallied after a wave of sell‑off in U.S. Treasury bonds.
What’s on the Spotlight Today?
Expectations are keenly pinned on U.S. retail sales and producer price inflation. Retail is poised to bounce back after a quietly weak January, while producer prices are overdue for a lift in February—especially as energy prices boom.
We’ll watch for these numbers to see if they dampen the Fed’s rate‑cut hopes, firing up Treasury yields, bulging the dollar, and potentially nudging stocks back down.
Crude Oil: Riding the Current with Eye on the Horizon
- Inventory drop – Last week’s data confirmed a 1.5‑million‑barrel dip in U.S. crude.
- Ukraine‑drone drama – Attacks on Russian refineries knocked out around 12% of processing capacity.
- WTI touched the $80 line, but short positions near that level might get liquidated under rising tensions.
Still, a sustainably higher climb above $80 seems unlikely once the geopolitical story winds down. In the short to medium haul, there’s a strong resistance zone around the $80‑82 range.
Europe’s Edge: Energy & Commodity Rally to New Record
European stocks surged yesterday, high on names that explore energy and commodities. The EIA highlighted a 1.5‑million‑barrel fall in crude inventory, plus gas inventories plummeting nearly three times estimated tonnage. Distillate inventories were worth noting as they rose. Oil touched a candle‑lit high of $79.90, yet hiccuped below the $80‑$82 resistive band.
OPEC kept its 2024 demand‑growth forecast at 2.25 million barrels per day, beating expectations, giving the oil market a solid lift. Once the Fed loosens policy, the dollar may weaken, giving medium‑to‑long‑term gains to oil.
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