What the First Half of 2024 Taught Us – And What the Second Half Might Bring
Half a year in, 2024 feels like a shaken bottle of soda—bits of fizz, some slosh, and a lot of uncertainty. Economic data keeps doing its own dance, while politics keeps throwing hat tricks that leave investors clutching their hats.
Economic Ups and Downs
- Manufacturing Meltdown – The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been on contraction mode since late 2022, with just one sweet spot in March that broke the trend.
- Services Sector Shocked – Services PMI slipped into recession territory again in 2024, a double whammy that stunned analysts.
- AI Keeps the Market Jumping – Tech giants are still punching out healthy earnings, showing that artificial intelligence is still a real money‑making magnet.
- Unemployment Rising – From 3.7 % to 4.1 % this year, the unemployment climb sparks the “Sahm Rule” warning of a looming recession.
Political Drama on the Global Stage
- Mexico’s general election and the European Parliament, plus the French presidential race, brought a volley of surprises that rattled both the MXN and EU markets.
- USA’s November showdown is called “The Great Choice”: Biden vs. Trump, after a riotous first debate that left half the nation baffled.
- Should Trump make a comeback? The world could brace for a tougher diplomatic stance, adding layers of risk to the global risk‑premium landscape.
Fed’s Tightrope Walk
- The first rate cut is still on someone’s watch list, with the Fed waiting for clearer disinflation signals.
- Delaying action could push the slowdown further, adding to market jitters.
- Monetary policy now has to juggle between keeping inflation in check and not choking the growing signs of an economy starting to crawl.
What to Watch in the Second Half of 2024
- Are manufacturing numbers toughening up again, or should we expect a continued decline?
- Will the AI boom keep the market dancing, or will it stall under the weight of policy uncertainty?
- How will the Fed finally decide on easing—or not—and how fast?
- What ripple effects will a possible Trump comeback have on both U.S. and global markets?
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