Small business growth forecast at a two year peak ahead of the Halloween Budget

UK Small Businesses Are Feeling the Sunny Side of Growth

In the latest buzz from Novuna Business Finance, 35% of UK small‑business owners are predicting growth for the final quarter of 2024—matching the high seen two years ago. The vibe is especially bright in the North, the Midlands, and among the younger, sprightly firms.

Why the Optimism?

After the August “boom” and inflation slipping back to the Bank of England‘s 2% target, the economy’s slow slide into growth feels more like a steep hill than a flat plateau.
Novuna’s decade‑long tracking has moved beyond mere sentiment; it actually records the percentage of owners who expect their businesses to grow each quarter.
Since the July General Election, the upswing has been a steady climb—North East firms jumped from 19% to 36%, North West from 23% to 34%, East & West Midlands from 27% & 29% to 37% & 40%.

Where It’s Not Happening (So Far)

While Central London remains a powerhouse (57% growth outlook in 2024), the South East and South West are on a dry spell: Q4 sees 35% and 23% respectively—no seasonal lift to rescue them.

Age Matters

The youngest startups (under five years old) are on a growth streak, keeping their forecasts positive for four straight quarters. Older mills (over 20 years) are feeling a bit more cautious.

Sector‑By‑Sector Snapshot

Across the board, businesses in manufacturing, construction, retail, media, education, real estate, and agriculture are chiming in more loudly for a bright future. After the election, the fresh wave of optimism covers construction, retail, IT, leisure, media, agriculture, and real estate.

Expert Take

Jo Morris – Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance says:

“We’ve seen a real lift in confidence for the last two quarters, with 35% saying they expect growth—up from 30% before July. Even though the autumn budget is on the horizon, UK small businesses are stepping into Q4 in a buoyant mood, and we’re ready to help them turn that optimism into real results.”

Keep the Momentum Going

Novuna is prepared to support mature businesses in rolling out growth initiatives, turning opportunities into outcomes. No surprise that the UK is on the brink of a sustainable growth era, thanks to the marriage of regional confidence and digital nimbleness.