2023’s Stock Surge: The S&P 500 Hits 18%—Is a Bull Run on the Horizon?
It’s been a stellar year for investors— the S&P 500 has soared an impressive 18% since the start of 2023. But instead of letting that gold‑enough momentum lead you to a cozy winter sofa, we’re dialing into a long‑term indicator that has turned up plenty of “buy” signals for the past three decades.
The Coppock Curve: Your Bull‑Market GPS
Picture a trusty old GPS that never fails to point you toward higher ground. That’s what the Coppock Curve does for the stock market. Apples to apples, it’s a monthly‑chart indicator that flags when the market is gearing up for a major uptick or showing signs of a downturn.
What’s Happened When the Coppock Curve Said “Buy”?
- 68 months after the signal—a sell flag appeared at month 72
- 48 months after the signal—a sell flag appeared at month 54
- 65 months after the signal—a sell flag appeared at month 73
- 65 months after the signal—a sell flag appeared at month 74
In plain English: whenever this indicator chimed “BUY,” the market typically kept climbing for at least four years, with many rallies extending to 5.5 years before the decline kicked in and the Coppock Curve yanked a “SELL” signal a few months past the peak.
Why This Matters to You
According to Cory Mitchell, an analyst over at Trading.biz, “if the Coppock Curve gave you a buy signal in August, you’re looking at a rally that’s just turned two months old— and that could still have four or more years of growth up and running, if the past record holds true.”
So instead of dithering over whether to open your first big‑ticket position, maybe take the Coppock Curve’s cue seriously and let your portfolio ride the wave a little longer.
What the Coppock Curve Is Really Telling Us
When the Coppock Curve nudges above its own “zero” line, it’s giving you a green light to BUY. Hit the DOWN button at the same moment the curve dips below zero, and that’s a cue to SELL. Think of it as a slow‑rolling barista’s espresso—steady, not rushing.
Long‑Term, Dude‑Proof
The Coppock Indicator lives for the long haul. Short‑term jitters, like that U‑shaped dip the S&P 500 took in early 2020 (a 30‑plus percent slide in just two months), didn’t even get a “sell” shout. And still, the curve only started yawning a trade away several months later.
Buy Signals: The “Hold the Bag” Edition
When the curve finally says “go,” prices drag a little downhill for a bit, then start climbing again—usually peaking somewhere between 48‑68 months after the green light. Picture this: you catch a wave, surf a bit, then ride to the shoreline.
Sell Signals: Sometimes a Nudge, Sometimes a Free‑Fall
- 2000 & 2008 crash: The curve sent a “sell” ping about a third of the way into the decline. If you had tuned in, you could have avoided a lot of pennies and panic.
- 2016 side‑ways: Even though the market didn’t tumble, the curve told investors to step out as the sideways jog was ending, only to whisper a “buy” once more.
- 2022: The sell call came too late—right near the bottom. Picture missing the rain at the bottom of a bucket; not ideal.
All‑That’s-Glitter‑over‑30‑Years
Across three decades, the Billy “Coppock” buy signals have been pretty spot-on—generating multi‑year surges in the S&P 500. Sell signals? Eh, mostly a mixed bag. So while past results are reassuring, paddle carefully; it’s a roller‑coaster ride out there.
But Heads Up—The Signposts Are Not Holy Scripture
The market doesn’t text smiley faces. And big swings (both highs and lows) can come at your doorstep. Keep your positioning smart and your risk management sharper than your trading strategy.
Never miss a beat—subscribe for instant updates
Want real‑time alerts on this topic right on your phone? Hit the Subscribe button below and stay in the loop.
