S&P 500: Market “Ballerina” Gains While Trade Bubbles Pop
What’s Happening In The Numbers
- +1.13% – The S&P 500’s recent win streak is still on fire.
- Fed whispers: “I’ll cut rates in September.” The market’s listening.
- Risk‑on vibes spread like popcorn in a cinema – thanks to tense trade tensions easing.
Trade Talk: Tariff Truce & Techno‑Peace
The U.S. and China decided to chill for another 90 days. With President Trump‘s executive order in place, no new tariffs since Nov 10 – a breath‑of‑fresh‑air for factories and supply chains. No sudden spikes, just steady, slightly‑bumpy tech‑sector gains.
Geopolitics: From Alaska to Ukraine
Trump and Putin are exchanging “land swap” ideas in Alaska – a hand‑shake over Ukraine’s future borders. While we’re still waiting for the final script, the fact that they’re talking reduces the odds of a market check‑in crash.
Inflation—The New “Buzz” Word
The latest CPI data looked a little cooler than expected:
- Headline CPI: +0.2% month‑over‑month (forecast‑by‑forecast).
- Annual CPI: 2.7% (a tad below the predicted 2.8%).
- Core CPI (minus food & energy): +0.3% – still sticky.
- Labour market, revised by the BLS, shows a weakening trend (May‑to‑July). This adds hype for a September rate cut.
Why the S&P Loves It So Far
- Tech stocks are doing the cha‑cha, riding the wave of lower borrowing costs.
- Industrials & financials are the dynamic duo, sipping on a “soft‑landing” promise.
- Core inflation’s high‑temperature means the Fed will probably tan a bit before going budget‑hazy, keeping the rally calm rather than a circus.
Next‑Step Playbook
With macro risks under control, inflation sounding decent, and September rate cuts on the horizon, the S&P 500 is on a roll. Yet investors will keep a hawk’s eye on:
- Upcoming PPI releases.
- Retail sales figures.
- The outcome of the U.S.‑Russia summit.
Bottom Line
Expect the boardroom of the S&P 500 to keep its seats booked. More gains are likely, but with a gentle push rather than a rocket launch. Stay tuned, because the next big move could come from a new headline or a market‑level twist.
