Foodservice Inflation Hits a Stalemate
The newest CGA Prestige Foodservice Price Index (FPI) shows that inflationary bumps are slowing down. The index hovered along an almost level line in February, slipping down by a mere 0.1 point from January 2025.
Year‑on‑Year & Month‑on‑Month Trends
- YoY inflation stayed steady at 1.8 % for February.
- MoM inflation dropped slightly by 0.1 %.
Over the past twelve months, this steadiness hints at a brief breathing space for foodservice operators. Yet, the global economic plot twists and the sundry changes in domestic policy set the stage for fresh hurdles.
What’s Driving the Numbers?
- Six out of ten categories saw month‑on‑month inflation in February.
- Only one category displayed year‑on‑year deflation.
- Highest YoY inflation came in oils & fats at 5.7 % and coffee, tea & cocoa at 6.8 %.
The coffee and cocoa lanes were riding a wild roller‑coaster over the last year. Although they dipped a bit in the final quarter, these staples still trade at almost double their 2023 averages.
Meat is a full‑on adrenaline rush: beef prices are flirting with record highs, and chicken prices saw a spike after the Avian Flu hit Poland. The looming impact of newly slapped US tariffs still feels like a faint echo—no full blast yet—but the market could feel some turbulence as trade partners scramble for new routes.
Crude Oil & The Autumn Budget
Crude oil prices slid 4.7 % on both YoY and MoM scales. This dip stems from worries around the global economic rhythm and potential tariff wars.
Looking ahead, the Autumn Budget is set to kick in in April. Labour cost hikes will ripple through the supply chain, adding fresh pressure on food and beverage prices as producers and wholesalers skim up overheads. Couple that with rising production costs and even a low current inflation might leave room for a future price bump.
Voices from the Field
Shaun Allen, CEO of Prestige Purchasing: “While the overall Foodservice Price Index suggests inflation is hardly alarming right now, the relentless price surges in beef, chicken, dairy and coffee—plus the coming National Minimum Wage and National Insurance changes in April—signal a comeback of inflation ahead.” He adds: “Operators should arm themselves with solid procurement plans and mitigation strategies to steer through these waves.”
Reuben Pullan, Senior Insight Consultant at CGA by NIQ: “Inflation in foodservice has been calm lately, but several big storms loom. Rising National Insurance contributions will squeeze hospitality margins and likely push prices up. Tariff battles will inevitably add collateral damage across the sector. Confidence among consumers and leaders remains wary, so continued focus on cost control and margins is a must.”
Stay in the Know
For up‑to‑date feeds, sign up right here and keep the updates coming straight to your device.
