The Dollar’s Down Turn? Here’s Who’s In Trouble
When the U.S. dollar starts to wobble, it’s not just bank‑rollers who notice. Fed whispers about rate cuts, the nation’s debt ballooning, and a wave of countries growing weary of holding onto the greenback means the global economy is feeling the tremor. A fresh study from The Forex Complex lists which economies could feel the sting the most.
The Study’s Playbook
Think of each nation’s “dollar danger zone” as a four‑part health check:
- How much of its imports and exports dance with the U.S.
- What slice of its debt is written in dollars
- How its own currency shadowed the greenback from 2020 to 2025
- All of that combined into one scary score
Higher numbers = higher risk. Let’s see who’s on the list.
Top Ten Dollar‑Vulnerable Countries
- Mexico – 98.99
Almost half of its imports come from the U.S., and over 70 % of its exports head there. Even though its dollar debt is only 24.4 % of GDP, the trade tentacles alone make it super sensitive. - South Korea – 94.74
Trade ties are tiny (just 9.68 % of imports, 3.28 % of exports), but its dollar debt? 134.6 % of GDP. A sobering reminder that borrowing can outshine trade exposure. - Indonesia – 90.95
Traditionally pegged to the dollar, its currency can’t wiggle much. While it doesn’t chase U.S. markets, that fixed peg plus noticeable dollar debt keeps it in the mix. - Colombia – 73.75
With stronger U.S. trade than Indonesia and about 30 % of its debt tied to dollars, it’s a “double‑hit” vulnerability. - Hong Kong – 72.37
Little trade (just a sliver), but the debt twist—over 110 % of its economy in dollar bills—makes for a hot case of financial exposure. - Argentina – 57.29
High debt at roughly 60 % of GDP, even though U.S. trade is comparatively light. The dollar hit could be brutal. - Peru – 46.96
Around 38.9 % of GDP owes dollars; trade makes up 18.6 % of imports and 12.6 % of exports. A mid‑tier risk. - South Africa – 39.96
Trade exposure is modest, but with a third of its economy draped in dollar debt, it’s still on the radar. - Chile – 36.24
Balanced trade share (about 16 % both ways) plus modest debt (16.2 % of GDP). Its risk is lower compared to the giants. - Malaysia – 34.42
Exporting 19 % toward the U.S., importing 9 %, and with about 29 % of debt in dollars, it slips onto the list but with a lighter touch.
Why It Matters
“Global reliance on the U.S. dollar is deep but uneven,” says a spokesperson from The Forex Complex. “Some economies are tied through trade, others through finances like debt or fixed currency regimes. It’s the concentration that matters. A small dip can ripple worldwide if a lot of a country’s economy relies on one foreign currency.”
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