Three-Month Decline in Manufacturing Output Hits June

UK Manufacturing Struggles: A Quick Look at June’s Numbers

According to the CBI’s monthly Industrial Trends Survey (ITS), factories across the UK saw production tumble sharply in the three months ending in June, mirroring the downturn that hit May. Yet, while the squeeze feels heavy now, most firms predict a less painful slide over the next quarter (June to September).

Order Books & Profit Margins: Still on the Cold Side

Total orders are still in the red, roughly a third below what the industry calls “normal.” Even compared to the long‑run average, they’re 14% behind.
Export orders lag behind just as badly—roughly a quarter below the standard, and nearly 18% under the long‑run baseline.
Price expectations have eased a touch, with selling‑price inflation projected around 7% above the long‑term mean.
Finished‑goods stock levels are now just “adequate” (6% up from May’s 10%) but still 12% shy of the long‑term norm.

What the Survey Says

Pulling data from 335 manufacturers, the CBI found:

Output fell at a steep pace in the third quarter (balance of –23%, a touch softer than the –25% seen in May). 14 of 17 sub‑sectors dealt with declines, especially chemicals, metal products, and mechanical engineering.
Output pace to slow in the next three months to September (–5% forecast), giving a glimmer of relief.
Order books remain well below average—total at –33% and export at –26%, both far beneath the long‑run averages.
Expectations for average selling‑price inflation eased from +26% in May to +19% in June but still hover above the long‑term mean.
Finished‑goods balance slipped below the long‑run average (+12%), despite a modest rise in “adequate” stocks.

Expert Insight: Ben Jones on Industry Pressure

Ben Jones, CBI Lead Economist, says this is a reality check for the sector: energy hikes, higher labour costs, talent gaps, and a wobbly global economy all slap the industry with frosted glass.

“The UK’s manufacturing headspace is under a lot of strain. With the latest budget taking a hard look at spending, businesses are hoping the government can lighten the load before the autumn budget rolls around,” says Jones.
“We’re seeing great strides in infrastructure and industrial strategy—setting a clear long‑term economic blueprint. In parallel, the US‑UK trade deal is cutting tariff headaches, especially for car and aerospace players. British Steel’s new rail‑track deal with Network Rail is a solid win.”
“Now, the job is to turn these long‑term plans into immediate wins—quickly roll out energy‑cost help, show flexibility on growth and skills levies, and push tech adoption for productivity gains.”

He adds sentimentally: “Business owners are ready to roll up their sleeves and collaborate, turning big dreams into tangible jobs and opportunities.”