Trade Outlook Boosts Confidence

UK Economy’s Big‑Step Forward and Shaky Consumer Confidence

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Opinium data, the economic mood in Britain has been nudging up into a kinder place. The “economy score” slid from a rough -48 in April to a hopeful -36 in May. Still negative, but at least it’s not crashing in the deep end.

Consumer Cash and Spending

Personal finances are feeling a little lighter: down from -16 to -12.
Total retail spending went from a flirtatious +3 to a straight‑zero, as folks held their hands more firmly to their wallets.
The overall personal spending guarantee stayed steady at +10, a solid, no‑change stretch.
Lastly, personal savings slipped a touch further: from -4 to -5.

Helen Dickinson’s Take

CEO of the BRC, Helen Dickinson, gave the market a quick recap: “Consumer confidence is taking a cue from the UK’s economic pick‑up and a lull in global tension—especially post US‑China trade fracas. The numbers haven’t hit last year’s highs, but there’s a glimmer of relief.”

She highlighted that the older crew (over‑60s) had the biggest lift, bumping almost 20 points higher. Still, they’re the most wary of all age brackets—nice to know if you’re planning a retirement fundraiser.

“Maybe this uptick signals the stock market recovering after the shockwave from a laundry‑list of US tariffs,” Dickinson muses. “Retail spending expectations are staying steady for a third month, with a slight dip in the plan to spend.”

Trade Deals to the Rescue

Remember the day President Trump rattled his finger at a ridiculously high tariff rate? Fast‑forward to now: Britain’s bouncing back with trade pacts with major economies. The new hands on the US and Indian market had a noticeable feel‑good effect, and they’re hoping the next EU deal will fan the flame even brighter.

“If we can jump back in with a tax‑free shopping scheme, we’d draw high‑value shoppers from abroad—particularly to retail, hospitality, and leisure.” This could create jobs and turbo‑charge growth. Stay tuned.