What’s Happening: Treasury Turbulence, Dollar Dance, and a Dash of Gold
TL;DR: Treasuries went on a selling spree, the yield curve strained, the dollar got a boost, stocks took a little tumble, gold hit a fresh record, and oil’s playing a geopolitical guessing game.
Where We Stand
- Week started quietly—no big data drop‑ins and the news feed was almost a lullaby.
- Yet the Treasury market threw some hard punches: sell‑off across the curve, belly (mid‑term bonds) flopped the whole day.
- 10‑year yields hit >4.15%, new highs since late July. Somebody turned up the financial volume.
What Could Have Set It Off?
Point‑and‑shoot is tricky when there’s no clear trigger:
- No hot gossip from the Fed’s coffee‑talk speakers.
- Corporate debt issuance—none to eclipse the exit.
- Possible European bond supply pressure or a prep for a weekend rush of issuances. Think scraping the barrel just enough to get a story going.
Regardless, the rise in yields steepened the curve—yup, the curve looking more bumpy than a plumber’s whiteboard—and that, in turn, gave the dollar a lift. The greenback shed its Friday losses, creeping back over the 104‑mark for the first time since midsummer, winning a small battle against most G10 peers.
Trump Trade? Or “US Exceptionalism”?
Some folks are tying the dollar’s jump and yield hike to a sudden “Trump trade.” I’m not buying it. Without clear voter outcomes— polls still buzzing in the margin of error—there’s no solid case. The two top candidates differ mainly on regulation: Trump => less; Harris => more. Fiscal and monetary views? Pretty much the same. In FX and FI, the US still looks like the big winner—regardless of who flips the switch.
Stocks: Soft, Not Too Bad
- Tech lagged. Nasdaq slipped.
- Still holding a long‑term positive view thanks to solid earnings and robust economic momentum.
- Participants might still take risk‑off moves later in the week due to the upcoming election, jobs report (Nov 1) and the FOMC decision (Nov 7).
Gold: Gold Went Too!
Gold hit a new record, cresting >$2,700 per ounce. Traditional drivers are still acting a bit mad, but the bullish vibe is sticking around—a good one keep an eye on.
Oil: Waiting on Middle East Drama
WTI crude ticked past $70 per barrel. Investors are watching closely for an Israeli play in response to Iran’s missile show‑off. Anything could happen.
Look Ahead: Upcoming Data & Events
- October’s Richmond Fed manufacturing survey: not the headline grabber, but it tips off the next week’s ISM.
- IMF‑World Bank meetings in DC: a lot of noise, but maybe BoE’s Bailey or ECB’s Lagarde might drop some juicy words.
- Earnings lineup: lock‑in before the market opens—Lockheed Martin, RTX, 3M, and so on. The market’s hoping for consistent growth as the S&P sees Year‑over‑Year earnings climb.
Keep a watchful eye on the numbers and the political chatter—this week’s markets are riding a montage of financial drama and global tension.
