All Eyes on the Trump 2.0 Express
While the Fed’s Jack‑hammer (Jay Powell) was chatting with David Rubenstein and U.S. corporate earnings were doing their “busy‑busy” dance, the real headline‑grabber on the market run‑way was the Trump 2.0 trade.
Bond‑Market Buzz: A Stiff‑Upper Curve
- 2‑Year vs 10‑Year Treasury – The institutional pros are swapping these like they’re trading high‑value baseball cards.
- 2‑Year vs 30‑Year Yield Curve Steepener – The curve finally straightened out (no longer inverted) for the first time since January. Talk about a plot twist!
Bitcoin’s Cheerful Surge
Bitcoin leapt 6.2%, eyeing that 64k milestone. Even with SEC Chair Gary Gensler eyeing regulations, the notion of the “leader of the free world” cheering crypto feels like a golden ticket for the digital gold rush.
Corporate Earnings: A Slightly Sluggish Kick‑Off
U.S. companies are pulling in their numbers, but the rollout is a little slower‑paced—thin line between a bustling rollout and a splutter.
Final Takeaway
Between the Trump‑driven waves in bonds, the Fed couple’s introspective whispers, and crypto’s shiny rise, the markets are more alive than ever—just watch the loop for the next plot twist.
Oil, Banks and the Subtle Art of Sticking to the Energy Track
Yesterday’s market snapshot was a cocktail of small‑cap swagger, Fed‑shy optimism and a touch of political drama. Let’s break it down without the jargon—and with a dash of personality.
Crude oil is hanging on the edge
Oil gleamed‑in‑less a faux‑negative 0.3% drop, but the energy names in the S&P 500 turned up the heat, propelling the entire energy sector to the front rows of the best‑performing curtain. Banks, meanwhile, kept their usual rhythm, twirling to the new highs set by Goldman Sachs which stayed well‑supported through the steeper yield curve.
Banks keep the spotlight on us
- Bank of America and Morgan Stanley will be the featured performers in today’s earnings gala.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) – not a darling for day‑traders, but with an 8.4% weight on the Dow and options markets hinting at a ±4.4% swing, we could see a lively encore.
- The S&P 500 closed +0.3%, while US small caps stole the show, as the Russell 2000 hit fresh cycle highs.
Fed’s confidence rings with a chuckle
“Recent inflation numbers add some confidence,” said Jay Powell.
The result? The US swaps market confidently prices a September rate cut at 100%, with 65 bp paving the way for a December cut.
So the market feels the Fed is in sync with their direction—and that’s a pretty hearty sign.
Retail sales: what appears, what pays off
- The U.S. retail sales data (expected to dip by 0.3%) stands to temper rate expectations.
But if the numbers surprise us with higher sales, you’ll know the dollar will bump up in the markets. - USD flows are dancing around EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, with surprising actions in USDMXN and USDCNH—thanks to Trump’s 2.0 trades and the looming 10% tariffs.
- Look for the mighty USDZAR and USDNOK as the day’s big players; they might keep dancing higher.
- Don’t overlook the CAD exposure. Canadian CPI due at 22:30 AEST is slated for a moderation (headline CPI falls to 2.7% from 2.9%); this could confirm a 25 bp BoC cut on 24 July.
Political headlines: Trump’s choice echoes the trade war
- JD Vance is chosen as the running mate; “America‑First” is the slogan, and he’s known as a hard‑line hawk for trade, security and immigration.
- Vance’s stance on China fits the narrative, influencing markets.
Better selling was seen in China equities yesterday.
China’s Q2 GDP was a slower 4.7% versus the forecasted 5.1%, hinting at another day of caution from investors.
That’s the story in a nutshell: Energy stays hot, banks flirt with the spotlight, and USD is heading into the fracas of wedge‑building on the trade front. Bank‑bottom days, small‑cap feels, and a tad of politics keep the markets lively. Ready for tomorrow? We’ll keep an eye on retail sales, currency movements and the Fed’s any new cookie‑crumpling insights.
What’s the Deal With the ASX200?
Even though there are a few shiny hints on the horizon, investors are seeing the ASX200 open flat as if it were a calm lake on a sunny day. Yesterday’s market bounce of 0.7%? It’s still holding that nice above 8,000 guard‑rail. So, “high‑flying” vibes are in play, but any weakness in the index is still getting a solid boost from those upbeat tails.
Why It Looks Stronger Than a Newborn Bull
- • 8000+ – The index is nesting comfortably above its key threshold.
- • 0.7% lift – Yesterday’s jump is proof that momentum’s still there.
- • Flat today – A calm opening gives traders room to breathe, not panic.
Bottom Line
The ASX200 isn’t setting off any alarm bells yet. It’s like the market is saying, “All good here.” Keep your eye on the tickers, because any dip is met with a comforting lift from what’s fueling the ticker’s confidence.
