Trump’s Inauguration: The Market Play‑the‑Game
Yesterday wasn’t just a parade of caps and selfies—though you can’t listen to a Donald Trump roast without a dash of spectacle. For the Wall Street watchmen, the real excitement began before the oath was even read.
Why the Dollar Took a Dip (and the Bullish Chill)
- Trump’s Trade Hint: “No tariffs on Day 1,” WHOA— sounded like a sweet promise, but you know what they say: even “no” can turn into “yes” later.
- Markets React: Equity futures jumped like a kid on a sugar high, while the dollar slid sideways—and that’s because traders were denting their worst‑case hedges, feeling that maybe it’s safer to set the scene before we actually dive into the tariff pool.
- Currency Moves: The Euro snatched back the 1.04 mark, and the Canadian Dollar hit a one‑month peak—cool stuff if you’re a currency nudge‑lover.
Even with all the buzz, I still cheer for the dollar. Why? Because the “US exceptionalism” story keeps on glowing, and the Fed’s hawkish stance stands out among its G10 friends. Bottom line: when the buck dips, buy some.
Trade Wars vs. Wall Street: The Dilemma
President Trump’s sweet tooth is literally for Wall Street’s candy—boosting stocks and hype—so a mega trade fight that’d dent the bull would feel like a punch in the face. Meanwhile, the “tweet‑kings” policy style means you get a mix of catchy hashtags and policy speculation. The result? More volatility, more uncertainty—the ached prediction of the next four years.
Today’s Lineup: Data, Inflation, Earnings
- UK Labour Update: Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% in the last three months. Pay saw a 5.7% rise year‑over‑year—thanks, summer public‑sector bumps. Yet, the ONS keeps throwing budget money at data quality and still warns you might hit “safety in numbers” only after a few years.
- Canada & New Zealand Inflation: Processing these will confirm folks’ bets on a 25bp Bank of Canada cut next month (focused, not sure) and a 50bp Reserve Bank of New Zealand move in February.
- German Sentiment: The ZEW survey will probably keep the mood gloomy for Europe’s largest economy.
- Earnings Season: Netflix, United Airlines, 3M and others are back from the holiday. The ‘now you see me’ clip comes with quarterly numbers we can actually chew on.
So strap in—there’s a buzz of data, a whiff of new policy, and last, the sweet, slightly suspicious promise that maybe the tariffs will stay out of the pocket for a little while. Stay tuned, because what’s happening now sets the stage for the next four years.
