UK Labour Market Holds Steady Despite Gloomy Forecast
According to the latest data from Indeed, the UK job market has been showing a quiet resilience in recent weeks, even as economic outlooks remain less than bright.
Key Numbers at a Glance
- Job postings as of 14 February are 15 % below their pre‑pandemic baseline.
- Hiring demand seems to be treading water as we head into April’s policy changes.
- After the usual holiday dip, January saw a decent rebound, hinting at underlying strength.
How the UK Stacks Up
While the UK lags behind peers like Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the US—where postings are still above pre‑pandemic levels—there’s no sign of a major comeback yet.
Business Concerns & Market Sentiment
Companies have raised eyebrows over the potential job‑market hit from April’s National Insurance hike and the rise in minimum wage. Despite these worries, hiring has not slowed further—matching what official vacancy figures show: a recent stabilisation in activity.
Takeaway: The Market Is Holding Its Ground
Even with the gloomy economic backdrop, the UK labour market appears to be holding its own—no dramatic spikes or drops so far. It’s a steady, slightly cautious dance that could change once the holiday season and upcoming policy shifts settle.
New year hiring rebound suggests strength
Job Postings Stirring Back to Life in 2025—A Fresh Look
After a slow dip over the festivities, the job market has kicked back in vigor during this year’s early months. Recruitment engines roared to life in January, and by the first week of February, the volume of listings had bounced right back up to the levels seen in early December.
What’s the Trend?
Unlike the occasionally sluggish starts of recent years, 2025’s opening has been noticeably sturdier—boosting morale in a world that was still leaning out from a low baseline. Even though the numbers began as a modest figure, the upward climb is a reassuring sign that employers are rolling up their sleeves for the new year.
Hot Spots of Hiring
- Childcare: A surge in preschool and after‑school roles, as parents seek extra support during busy hours.
- Legal: Law firms, in particular, have dipped into a boom to fill counsel and paralegal positions.
- Marketing: From digital campaigns to brand strategists, the industry’s buzzing with momentum.
- Public‑Sector Pizzazz: Education & instruction and nursing jobs are riding the wave, thanks to new public-sector initiatives.
Quiet Cornerstones
On the flip side, hiring has been a bit mellow in the following areas:
- Retail: Roles such as driving, loading & stocking, and general retail gigs have seen a decline, steering away from the usual holiday bustle.
- Personal Care & Home Health: This niche has felt a drop in listings, reflecting a slower start.
- Community & Social Services: Similarly, the demand here remains lower than expected.
In a nutshell, while 2025 is stepping up the recruitment game, the pulse varies by sector—many are on fire, while a few are still idling in the dark.
Wage growth remains high
UK Wage Growth: A Roller‑Coaster Ride
Numbers That Keep You on Your Toes
December 2023 saw wages for the UK skyrocket to about 6%, and January 2024 posts from Indeed hint that year‑on‑year pay is crawling forward at 6.1%. It’s a bit of a bounce‑back from the peaks we just hit, but still, twice the Bank of England’s 2% inflation target.
Why Policymakers Get the Goosebumps
When wages climb faster than prices, businesses are stalled into a pricing dilemma. They might indulge in a price hike, which is a classic headache for those steering the economy’s ship.
Global Comparisons: The Fast‑Lane UK
In a quick look around the pond:
- UK wage growth is double that of the US.
- Same for the Euro area.
Good News for Workers (and a Hint of a Challenge)
Even though the headline numbers spin like a carnival ride, workers are feeling the ribbon of relief. Real‑terms pay is increasing by about 3.4% annually. That’s a real win for folks trying to stitch back that paycheck after the inflation roller‑coaster.
Redundancy notifications remain low despite warnings of job cuts
UK Labour Market: Ridiculous Redundancies and Relating Resilience
Despite the looming threat of job cuts, the number of redundancy notices hasn’t stepped up like a roller‑coaster. The rule says if a company plans more than 20 redundancies, it must give the gov a heads‑up at least 30 days in advance. Yet, the count of notices is still hovering near its usual baseline.
What the Economist Is Saying
Jack Kennedy, a Senior Economist at Indeed, had a few words:
- Job postings rebounded in January — quick recovery from the holiday lull.
- Hiring demand is still shy of pre‑pandemic numbers and the economy remains a bit wobbly.
- The labour market’s got a strong mood: steady job ads, manageable redundancy chatter, and solid wage growth.
In his own words: “There’s a clear question: can the UK labour market avoid a hard landing once April’s policy changes hit the ground? Hiring demand has held its ground so far, but businesses may need to re‑think workforce moves when costs jump around.”
What It Means for the Workforce
So, here’s the low‑down: the market isn’t collapsing, but it’s on a tightrope. Companies looking to cut staff must keep the 30‑day window in mind. Wage growth remains steady, giving a glimmer of optimism for workers. For now, the economy is punching a steady rhythm instead of a chaotic free‑fall.
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