UK Mid‑Market Firms Keep Their Eyes on the US Amid a Flurry of Trade Deals
Grant Thornton UK rolled out its Business Outlook Tracker in April, surveying 600+ mid‑market decision‑makers. Even though the latest US trade deal has only just landed, businesses are already chewing over strategy and giving the UK a hopeful glance at what’s next.
Optimism on the Rise – But Not All the Way Upstairs
- 80% of firms say they feel optimistic about the UK’s economic future over the next half‑year. (Down 3 percentage points from February.)
- 59% expect profits to climb in the coming six months – a slide of 8 points since February.
- These numbers are still comfortably above the average for the past four years, showing resilience after the pandemic’s roller coaster.
Dan Dickinson, a tax partner at Grant Thornton, remarked that mid‑market companies are the “real powerhouse” of the UK economy. “We’ve built resilience into our models, so we’re better equipped to weather sudden shocks,” he said.
US Market: Core Growth, But With a Cautionary Twist
When asked about the U.S. market, a sizable 75% of respondents identified it as a key growth driver. Yet:
- 61% see tariffs as a potential hurdle.
- 70% still find president Trump favorable for British business (down 13 points).
Despite the optimism, about 68% of companies are already trading with the U.S., but almost half (45%) anticipate completely stepping away, and a quarter (25%) plan to cut back. Only 9% foresee no impact at all.
The Strategic Game Plan
Grant Thornton specialists highlight that firms are fast‑tracking plans: “We’re scouting alternate markets, setting up UK‑based US operations, even moving parts of our supply chain back home.”
Even before the US‑UK deal reached the press, there was limited detail and remaining negotiation points. The survey suggests that firms’ blueprints haven’t dramatically changed yet – they’re still keeping all options on the table.
Industry Climate: Trade Deals and Rate Cuts Bringing a Breath of Fresh Air
Recent months have been a whirlwind of two new trade agreements and a series of interest‑rate cuts, sparking a wave of positivity among businesses. Each deal is less a cookie‑cutter solution and more a clearward signpost, aiding planning and investment. Plus, with another deal looming with the EU, businesses are getting reassurances from global leaders, reinforcing the UK’s reputation as a reliable trading partner.
Bottom Line: Stay Fluid, But Don’t Be Hasty
In today’s volatile world, it’s tempting to throw a knee‑jerk decision at a new trade deal or market shift. But these moves often lock a company into costly change programs and higher operating costs. In contrast, a measured, heavily‑analysed approach—full sensitivity reviews, flexible contingencies, and a patient eye on the next 3–6 months—seems to be the strategy that can keep firms ahead of the curve.
So, whether you’re a mid‑market gearhead or a corporate strategist, remember: think long‑term, analyze your options, and give that extra wiggle room money. After all, flexibility is the new horsepower on the UK business road.
