2024 is a Winning Year for the S&P 500
In 2024, the S&P 500 has already leapt ahead by 7% when we tack in dividend payouts, sending investors high‑fiving the market’s strong performance.
January & February: The Unusual Upshots
Traditionally, the first two months of the year are the “quiet” months, where markets often stick to the ground. Yet this year, both January and February defied expectations and nudged the index higher.
“The calendar warns investors that January and February usually aren’t gold‑mining months,” says Trading.biz analyst Cory Mitchell. “But 2024 proved that history isn’t always a scruff‑y road‑map.”
The March Surge
Historically, March is the grand entrance to the annual rally. For the past two decades, the S&P 500 has gone high in March 70% of the years – a sign that this month loves to kick things off. The average gain in March is about 1.2%.
April’s Consistent Strength
April is the “steady rock” of the year. It has seen the index climb in 80% of the last 20 years, with an average return of around 2%. If you’re looking for sturdy ground, April’s the place to anchor your trades.
Seasonal Patterns: A Classic, Not a Concrete Rule
The classic seasonality narrative suggests January and February’s slight gains (average returns of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively) are the norm. Meanwhile, March’s 70% win rate and April’s 80% win rate show a clear preference for the warmer months.
What the Numbers Tells Us
- January – 50% of the time it moves up, average return: 0.1%
- February – 60% of the time it moves up, average return: 0.2%
- March – 70% of the time it moves up, average return: 1.2%
- April – 80% of the time it moves up, average return: 2%
Bottom Line for 2024 Investors
Cory Mitchell’s advice? Stay in until the up‑trend stalls. The current data suggests the next couple of months will be strong, and it’s wise to keep playing the long‑term game while the bulls are still in charge.
Stock Market Rollercoaster: The Months That Matter
Months Most Likely to Rally
- March — the spring season often kicks off a bullish push.
- April — momentum builds as businesses close the first quarter.
- May — a reliable springtime burst, though still a bit shy of the year‑end giants.
- July — the midsummer surge that keeps investors on their toes.
- November — a late‑autumn rally that sets up the holiday buying frenzy.
Want a brief recap? Think of these weeks as the “Don’t Sleep At My Desk” moments when the market is on fire.
Months Worst for Stock Performance
- January — the post‑holiday lull where portfolios often feel a bit drowsy.
- February — still early in the cycle, stock prices tend to stay low.
- June — the first half of summer can feel underwhelming for investors.
- August — with many traders on vacation, the market can slouch.
- September — fall headlines often dampen sentiment and drag returns.
These are the “weekend vibes” that keep investors calm, not curious. Use the data wisely – avoid the gloom, chase the gleam!
Using seasonality in stock trading
March Market Outlook: What the Numbers (and the Nervous Traders) Tell Us
We all love a good seasonal forecast, but remember: history only tells us what we once saw, not what’s coming next. If you’re betting on March to keep the rally going like last January and February, the odds are slightly in your favor—but don’t forget that the market still loves a surprise.
Seasonality Meets Reality
Most savvy traders don’t put all their eggs in the seasonality basket. They combine it with price action, volume cues, and those ever‑useful technical” cheat sheets to make decisions. The key? Keep your plan flexible. Seasonality is like the weather forecast: helpful, but not the final say.
Where the S&P 500 Resides Right Now
- After a rocky late‑2023 pullback, the S&P 500 has been rocking an upward trend with only a few hiccups.
- From the end of October 2023 to now, the index has bounced hard and rarely pulled back.
- Between November 2023 and February 27, 2024, there were just two pullbacks over 2% — and each dipped less than 3%.
Key Takeaway
March could keep the momentum, but investors should stay ready for a two‑way dance. Couple periodical data with real‑time price movements, and you’ll have a balanced view that keeps the portfolio from doing a full‑on circus.
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