USD / JPY: The Yen’s September‑to‑November Roller‑Coaster
Bumpy start?*
The pair opened Tuesday at 150.968 – the highest spot in two days.
Why? The Japanese yen’s disdain for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is piling up: investors doubt the BoJ will hike rates at its next meeting, December 19.
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How Japan’s Economy Feels Put
Strong show‑stopping GDP: 3Q growth hit 1.2 % vs 0.9 % in the previous quarter – beat the analysts’ eyes.
Yet the powder keg stays damp: inflation remains stubbornly low and the labor market keeps tapping its toes.
Result: even a sprightly BoJ may stay cautious longer than traders want, prioritising standing‑stability over a quick spike.
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What’s on the Horizon
Japan’s PPI for November
Stronger data? Yen may wobble, hinting at a rate hike.
Slower data? Yen keeps sliding.
A lone headline without BoJ action? Short‑lived effect.
U.S. Inflation (release Wednesday)
If it falls under expectations, the Fed could trim rates to 4.25 %‑4.50 %.
A cut sees the dollar soften and the yen rebound – but only for a moment.
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Technical Road Map (Daily View)
| Zone |
Value |
What It Means |
| Support |
149.50 / 148.80 |
Near 100‑day MA; 148.20 is the 38.2 % Fibonacci from September low to November high |
| Resistance |
151.30 / 151.82 |
50‑day MA; 152 is the 200‑day MA |
| Breakout Signals |
Below 149.50 → deeper to 148.20 |
Above 152 → short‑term bullish push |
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Forecast: Where the Hat Might Fall
Short‑term: Likely to stay tight around the 150 mark.
If BoJ tightens slowly: Yen keeps losing ground.
If Fed starts cutting: Dollar slumps, but yen’s domestic woes still hold it back.
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Bottom Line
The USD/JPY tug‑of‑war hinges on two central banks and the unfolding economic data.
A BoJ miss‑step → Yen weakens further.
Fed decisiveness → Dollar could see a temporary dip, but the yen’s underlying constraints keep the pair dancing in a tight corridor.
Stay tuned for tomorrow’s BoJ post‑meeting announcement – it could be the definitive trump card.*
