Job Confidence on the Rise, Even as Inflation Winds Down
What the Numbers Say
Economists are sounding the alarm that pay inflation has pretty much hit its peak over the past year, and growth in 2024 is looking more like a slow‑moving turtle than a sprinting gazelle.
Yet, far from feeling out of the loop, the average worker is still throwing their hands up in the air. The Robert Half Jobs Confidence Index (JCI), teamed up with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), found that 58.4 % of employees feel pretty confident about their job security for the next six months.
Why People Still Feel Safe
- Low Unemployment – There aren’t a lot of people on the job market, so competition is deep.
- High Vacancy Rate – Companies are still looking for talent, even if the pay isn’t firing on all cylinders.
- Wage Rise Outpaces Inflation – While prices are going up, salaries are keeping pace.
- Skills Shortages – Employers are scrambling for specialized skills, giving employees a feel of invincibility.
The Trend is Durable
The JCI’s “job security confidence” pillar has been the biggest positive driver for the overall index score for the last eight quarters. That consistency suggests that, regardless of a chilly economy, people’re still believing in their own job stability.
All Signs Point to a Positive Outlook
Even with the slower economic forecast for the next six months, the confidence bubble remains inflated, matching what CEBR predicts for the upcoming labour market.
2024 Labor Outlook: Confidence, Challenges, and a Dash of Reality
High rates are still tightening the reins on shoppers and spenders, trickling into the job market. Still, the labor scene stays tighter than ever in the grand scheme of things.
Why the Job‑Search Confidence Spike is a Surprise
- 47.4 % of job seekers are feeling bold in Q3 2023 – up 5.5 % from the prior quarter.
- That boost could turn into a double‑edged sword: hardworking folks might dash into roles faster, but companies may struggle to keep up.
- Firms in 2024 may find it harder to fill positions when workers feel ready to rocket ahead.
The Robert Half Salary Guide Highlights
- 69 % of businesses think 2024 brings growth.
- Out of them, 47 % plan to add new permanent staff.
- Shockingly, 75 % worry about snagging and holding onto skilled talent.
Matt Weston, Senior Managing Director UK & Ireland at Robert Half, breaks it down:
“Pay inflation appears to have hit its peak, but don’t worry—wages are set to stay above inflation for the next few months,” he says. He adds, “The economy’s still shaky, but the workforce remains unshaken. That’s a weird mix, right?”
Weston explains why the labor market feels out of sync:
- Past upheavals—Brexit, the Great Resignation, and the pandemic—have reshaped how talent finds jobs.
- The web of post‑pandemic inactivity, tech shifting skills, and a tired social mobility system is making it tougher for companies to find the right fit.
- “Job confidence is on the rise, yet skill gaps and economic lull will take ages to fix,” he warns.
Bottom line: 2024 is going to need agile talent strategies and workforce models if firms want to stay ahead.
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