Yen Slumps Against the Dollar as Markets Gear Up for Further Tightening

Yen Slumps Against the Dollar as Markets Gear Up for Further Tightening

USD Hits a New High Against the Yen

At 6:30 a.m. GMT, the US dollar jumped 0.75% against the Japanese yen, landing at 158.17 — the best exchange rate since late April. The yen’s slide is a mix of BOJ policy chatter and fiscal hope.

Why the BOJ is Walking on Thin Ice

  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said it plans to slow its monthly bond purchases to $38 billion, while keeping short‑term rates in the 0 %–0.1 % band.
  • This move signals a gentle tightening. Markets expected the BOJ to slash the pace of purchases, but they’ll finalize specifics in July, after a possible 1–2 year implementation clock.
  • Because the BOJ has been hoarding a bulk of the bond supply, the market feels a bit of relief — bond yields dipped, which is what helped the yen lose ground.

What Might Keep the Dollar from Racing Further

  • US Treasury yields lately have slumped, especially the 10‑year curve, hinting that the Fed might trim rates again next September or November. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 69 % chance for September and 81 % for November.
  • Higher weekly jobless claims and a surprising drop in the Producer Price Index (PPI) last month give the market a chuckle that the Fed may ease off its tightening dial.
  • Even with the Fed’s hint, the BOJ could keep tightening, especially as inflation picks up. The May PPI surprise bolstered that narrative.

Yen’s Roadblocks and Other Market Dynamics

  • Weak domestic growth and record‑level outflows from foreign bond markets (last seen in 2013) are stalling any yen revival.
  • 10‑year US Treasury yields sit at the lowest since March at 4.24 %, while Japanese bond yields fell to 0.906 % — the lowest since May.

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