Private Sector Outlook Hits a Low Point: The Forecast Says It’ll Be a Rainy Season
There’s no sign of a sunny boost coming to the business world this summer. According to the latest CBI Growth Indicator, private firms have taken a step backwards again in the three‑month period to August, with activity falling. The weighted balance is a pepper‑strawberry mix of –30%, the steepest drop since September 2022.
What’s Poisoning the Pump?
- Services Sector – volumes expected to tumble by 32%, the worst slump since November 2022. The drop pulls two main sub‑categories down:
- Business & Professional Services – down 29%
- Consumer Services – down 43%
- Distribution Sales – predicted to shrink by 39%, matching the weak‑stat night before again.
- Manufacturing Output – a modest fall of 14%.
The negative vibe isn’t a one‑off. Private‑sector activity slid again in the three‑month stretch to May, falling from –19% in April to –26%. The slump was widespread, affecting every sector from retail to tech.
What the Bottom‑Line Leaders Are Saying
Alpesh Paleja, Deputy Chief Economist at CBI, offered his take:
“There’s almost nothing to cheer the summer skies with. Firms are feeling the sting of higher costs from NICs and the National Living Wage hike, plus a murky global trade scene and weak domestic demand. All these headwinds keep the business mood damp.”
“Given this uncertainty, firms are looking for the government to step in, amp up confidence and spark growth. We’re inching close to the Spending Review and Industrial Strategy, and that’s the perfect moment to push forward with the Made Smarter Programme, a real tech adoption plan, business rate reforms, a more flexible Apprenticeship Levy, and incentives for occupational health.”
In short, you might say “leaving no stone unturned” for a next‑gen boost to the economy.
Stay in the Loop
Want to get real‑time updates on this story? Subscribe now and never miss a beat.
