Oil Soars Down the Decade‑Long Slide
Brent and WTI both slipped 0.4% today, hitting a low we haven’t seen in over ten years. Oil’s going down, but it’s still riding that long‑term glimmer of hope.
Why the Price Drop?
- China’s Manufacturing* – The Caixin/S&P Global PMI for August jumped to a solid 50.4, reclaiming growth for the 10th straight month. New orders are back on track, even as export orders dipped—a first since this year.
- Economic Sentiment* – Business confidence hit a three‑month high, thanks to improving conditions.
- Middle East Tensions* – With no quick deal to end the Gaza conflict, the risk of further disruptions—and the recent oil tanker raid—keeps investors on edge.
What’s Happening Geopolitically?
The U.S. is holding its breath. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told families of U.S. hostages that President Biden will deliver a ceasefire proposal this week. Washington is negotiating a “take it or leave it” deal with Egypt and Qatar, but if it fails, the whole “American‑led” negotiation baton may be retired.
Meanwhile, Gaza’s conflict is still brewing. A strike in Israel aimed to pressure Netanyahu, who refuses move to southern border corridors—something Hamas outright rejects. With no solution on the table, the political death‑knell may echo across the West Bank, the Lebanese‑Israeli front, and even the Red Sea.
US Labor Data Off the Hook
Shift over to U.S. job numbers: the non‑farm payroll report due Friday is expected to stir the economy buzz again. Last August’s surprise job data had many scrambling to talk about the U.S. labor market’s health— and a recession possibility. Keep your eyes peeled, because oil prices just dipped again when those numbers hit the fan.
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