Retail Sales Slump Continues for Seventh Month; Sharper Drop Anticipated in May Under Chancellor Budget

Retail sales slump eases, but the bad mood shows no sign of lifting

Retailers have decided that the steep slide we saw yesterday in March has finally calmed down. In the year‑to‑April period, sales volumes dropped at a modest -8 % rate compared to a -41 % plunge months before. Still, it’s the seventh straight month missing the year‑on‑year benchmark, and expectations for May are even gloomier.

What the numbers are saying … and why it still feels like a rainy day

Annual retail sales fell -8 % in April – a lot gentler than the -41 % drop in March. But next month? Retail folks predict a rougher hit of -33 %.
Retail “seasonal” performance in April was marked as poor – a bit better than March’s -36 % – yet May is expected to lag even more at -38 %.
Online sales are a silver lining: the year‑to‑April figure barely changed, with a -1 % dip versus March’s -27 %. They look set to stay flat or even tick up by +2 % next month.
Wholesale sales are in even deeper trouble, sliding -33 % in April (down from -29 % in March). A smaller fall of -26 % is projected for May.
On the whole, distribution – retail, wholesale, and vehicle trades – suffered a contraction of -26 % in the year‑to‑April period, a touch gentler than the -32 % drop seen in March. The forecast for May keeps it humming at a steady -29 % slide.

What the chief economist has to say

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI summed up the mood as follows:

“Sales volumes fell more slowly this month, but we’re still on a pessimistic track because of the Autumn Budget touches, sluggish consumer mood, and the unpredictable global scene.”

“The wholesale numbers echo that pattern – one of the sharpest four‑year declines you’ve ever seen.”

“If there’s no rebound coming, the whole distribution arm wants the government to crank up the levers that can lift both business and household spirits in these tricky times.”

“Reforming the Apprenticeship Levy to make skills investing easier, ramping up tech uptake via the next Spending Review, and keeping trade fair and open are the pozzies that could give the economy a much‑needed kick‑start.”